Morning Line Magic

Morning Line Magic

Over the years, our number one request from players has always been for a quick-handicap, advance-betting method that would use the morning line, and not require being glued to the computer screen, or track or satellite center monitors.

Personal time is valuable- we understand.

All of us have things we might prefer doing – or at least of having the option of doing – rather than sitting through long cards of racing where most of the time is spent just waiting for the next race (particularly if on a low-caliber Thursday card with off-weather tracks and miniature fields).

But the ‘quick-handicap – bet in advance‘ idea has always seemed impractical . . . too easy to be possible. However, that never stopped the continuing research and hunting for a way to make it work, and finally – we’ve found a pretty darned good way . . .

 

We have a new method for you  – and this time for all of you.  We’ve dubbed it the Morning Line Matrix Method.

We feel that any player will benefit from this method – even if you are an active player – even if you want to also use near-post time odds as a final filter before betting . . . but most especially if you are the type of player who wants to handicap – early-bird wager, and then go on about your day.

Matrix: “Something that constitutes the place or point from which something else originates, takes form, or develops.” 

The ML Matrix Method doesn’t necessarily have to replace what you are now doing, but it can – and from this method will develop options – a freer way of approaching the races. Your handicapping will evolve into a new, surprisingly more insightful form.

This method has been in the making for – well – 30 years (minimum)!

By that is meant – all the ‘hopeful’ research, and years spent searching for the factors and application options that would make it feasible to bet ahead of time. There were so many dead ends and lost testing bankrolls over that time – it seemed very probably impossible.

Then several weeks back – after Breeders Cup was over (and with the HRG Index on hiatus), there was time to do my annual, extensive review, and re-check of  several recent months of races. 

The research started with a focus of trying to find a way to increase the number of wagers made (volume) while reducing the number of handicapping factors used (time).  But as fortune would have it, I stumbled into a couple of insights about the Morning Line that were intriguing – enough so that I backed off on regular betting, and started running some $2 test series. Tweaked – tested again – tweaked – etc. etc.

After 353 races, a “final format” for the method was established.

The 309 races in the data given for the ML Matrix Method began at that point, and the handicapping and wagering of all of those races used only that final format. 

All days and races were in succession. The tracks I was following were 5; Aqueduct, Gulfstream, Fairgrounds, Laurel, and Tampa. The dates were: all racing days Wednesday through Sunday from Dec.6th through Dec.23rd – when I stopped for the Christmas holidays.  The write-up of this method followed shortly after that. 

All betting decisions were made and transacted in the morning at the time of handicapping – prior to racing – from the morning line only.

. . . The figure totals:

  • There were 14 racing days – 11 were winning days
  • There were 309 races qualifying races – 109 won for a hit rate of 35.3%
  • Two horses were used in all but 10 of those races – where a single was played
  • The average win mutuel was $15.80
  • The ROI was +41.8%

(the full Excel spreadsheet of the 309 races is provided with the method)

These figures were in line with the previous 353 races tested, but lets give a nod to the fickle racing gods – and Murphy  . . .

. . . If the highest payer of the 309 races is tossed out (an $81.80 winner) of the figuring – AND – a 30% potential unforeseen error adjustment is added – the ROI is still a very healthy +28% 

(for a quick-handicapping, no-attendance method that frees up your entire racing day!)

 

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The learning curve is very short, and the method’s rules easy to understand and apply.

The time required to handicap a race varies from 30 seconds to a couple of minutes max, so should you want to increase the number of tracks and races you are currently betting – you will be constrained only by your bankroll – the handicapping is not time-intensive.

The Morning Line Matrix Method will give you back your freedom. It will save hours of handicapping time each week – and the profit potential is strong . . . second income type strong!

 

     – A word on the wagering with this method:

Betting in advance, of course , eliminates the ability to adjust your wagers in order to ameliorate cold streaks, or take advantage of hot streaks. There will be late scratches that change things – and having to place all bets down at once when you are betting into 10 to 15 races for the day can be daunting. 

There will be a few tough losing days – those days when low-priced favorites are dominating.  But the high-payers will come.  In the 109 winning races, the winner paid over $20, twenty-six times! It paid over $30 ten times, over $40 four times – and there were two $80+ winners.

However, because you are not suffering through every individual bad beat, jockey screw-up, lost nose-bob – or even the occasional miraculous win . . . there are no “king of the world” moments – and also no “why was I born” moments.

The daily up-and-down ride is for the most part eliminated. The boredom and wasted time is completely eliminated.

You’ll get $40+ winners that you would have rejected outright had you been betting live. But too, you’ll find $3.00 winners that also would have been passed had you known the odds dropped and the value disappeared. 

(Again though – the method can be applied ‘live’ as an active player equally well).

 

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You want this method – and we want you to have it . . . so we’ll hold the price down to far below it’s actual value to you.

The price is $67.00 USD –

(or you can mail us just $4 dollars instead . . .  as long as they are U.S. silver dollars!   🙂  )

 

Order Here

 

A prosperous New Year to all!

p.s.  –  I put the method into action again yesterday at Gulfstream – New Year’s Day: While watching football and hanging out with friends – the method hit payers for me of $18.60, $27.80, and $12.80.

p.p.s. –  The HRG Index will start back up for 2018 with the beginning of the Oaklawn meet on Friday, January 13th.
(you can subscribe on the order page above)

 

 

29 comments

  1. Gary, my biggest peeves with advanced wagering is putting money down in what turns out to be a short priced favorate – win or lose. Have you applied any conditional based wagering strategy to this?

    Thanks in advance.
    Jim

    • Jim – I agree, it is a drag to have a ml horse at 3-1 get jumped on by the crowd and go off at 7/5 – etc. But – barring scratches among the low two Ml odds – the method pretty much prevents being on either of the Ml low two. I think you might optimize the method by adding conditional wagering, but it would need a good long test to verify. Regards – Gary

  2. Raymond Strommen

    In your race examples, the last race the number 1 horse with the high apv which was a selection had a morning line of 15/1.
    Does highest apv Trump morning line??

    • Ray – One of the “tweaks” I mentioned in the post – that occurred in the initial 353 race formulating period – was the lowering of a 20-1 cutoff on ML odds to 15-1 (the attempt to make any legitimate method a paint-by-numbers style application is futile . . . race handicapping is far to variable for that).

      Remember that you don’t apply the ML odds cutoff until after you have run through the field with the Primary Rules (and Secondary if a stakes race). In that example you reference – the initial run through exposed the fact that no other horse in the field had ever even been in a Graded race (except Touch of Bling – which had tried one 444 days back and run 10th!). So, in my mind that horse (having won a G3, and fairly recently had run a close 3rd in a G3) was one of the main contenders in the race.

      I guess then the short answer would be “Yes” – if you have a race with an obvious, and in your mind ‘over-riding‘ reason for allowing a 15-1 (or even a 20-1 – though never a 30-1) morning line into your final mix – then by all means do so. Those are the kind we wait for – where the ML maker has stubbed his toe, and the crowd has taken his word for it! – Gary

  3. Hi Gary–

    Thought I would share a ray of sunshine with you.

    Based on my interpretations the first race at FG today was a pass. The second race showed some promise.

    The six horse Jack Snipes was the high APV horse (based on my software) and had not run in a sprint since 10/29/16. He was blown out in his previous at 100k, but finished within 10 lengths on 11/18/17 (that satisfied the APV guidelines the way I read them) and won his 3rd race back at 75k. His seventh race back was a win. To me, this fellow passed all the primary and secondary rules.

    There were two others (the 1 and the 7) that I had to consider. The seven horse I eliminated with your awesome😀 144 day rule and the favorite #1 could not be ignored even though his last two were not good at all, plus a zero win trainer (the jockey was at 13%).

    I can’t say it took me less than a minute to sort this out, but what the hell.

    Thanks again for all you do.

    Ron

    • Ron – Good calls all around – though not playing the method exactly as given (I was playing ‘live’ as always) – I had it just like you’ve interpreted. – Gary

      • Ron Wolfe

        Just a follow up.
        When I read your email, to me it sounded like you were buried in unhappy campers. After reading the posts I’m seeing a lot of folks feeling like I do about this one.

        This train is strong enough to get out of the station and up the track. It could be one of your best yet. Glad to see that because I do know you try. I also know you take care of your customers and care a hell of a lot.

        I’m not on the HRG Index yet, only because I refuse to give up the thought that maybe mine is better, but I doubt it…sooner or later I’ll be there.

        Thanks for something that is logical, structured and still gives me the ability to use my brain. I appreciate that.

        Best regards–Ron

      • Ron – This is a funny business, there are so many doubters – and a lot of folks have been burned by unscrupulous ‘system sellers.’ People who are very successful with their careers and/or businesses start out thinking this game should be easy – and when the easy money and quick success doesn’t come – they blame anyone or anything else but themselves. As well, the desire to read seems to be disappearing in our current society – taking the time to reason something out is a rapidly fading skill. When I get even 5% of clients questioning something in a method – I figure I must have not made that aspect clear enough, or easy enough to interpret. That then bugs me, and now there are two disgruntled people.

        Anyway – I sure do appreciate it when folks like yourself and many other of our clients – are aware of what we are attempting to accomplish. – Gary

  4. Raymond Strommen

    Decided to play gulfstream considering the horrendous weather elsewhere.
    6 playable races, 1 single. 11 bets, at $2 level $22 in, $40.20 out!
    R2. #4. $23.60
    R3. #4. $11.80
    R8. #8. $4.80
    Those were the winners.82.7 roi
    Was gonna wait a month to get a larger sample, but was kinda excited at these results, had to share. It took me a few minutes to “handicap” could probably do every track running in under an hour. Pinnacle of simplicity, no brain strain.
    Could be called “shooting fish in a barrel method”
    Will check back in a month
    Ray

    • Ray – Thanks for the report. Yes – the weather is outrageously cold everywhere – even here in central Florida. Keep spankin’ ’em. – Gary

  5. In reply to George. After I received the method I gave it a try on 3 Australian tracks for four nights. I didn’t have the greatest of luck and it may be because the fields are so large. When there are 12-15 horses in a race you usually have 6-8 contenders. Then there are too many other variables to narrow it down to just two. I didn’t have a lot of luck and the ones that did hit were chalk. I know 4 days/3 tracks is a very small sample so it may be worth following for a longer period of time. Also, in 30 years I still find Australian racing near impossible to handicap conventionally.

  6. Hi Gary, In reference to where it says: You will see that in most races – the 3 Primary Rules will be all that is needed. All the other guidelines (i am assuming the secondary guidelines) and
    eliminations don’t come into play that often.

    Does that mean you can forget about the exceptions to rule #1 and rule #3 and play by using only the 3 primary rules without those 2 exceptions?

    Also, if you come across a race that requires using the secondary guidelines and eliminations, can you just simply pass the race and go on to the next one where the 3 primary rules will be all that is needed? Why bother with secondary guidelines and eliminations if in most races the 3 primary rules will be all that is needed right? Also, if there are 8 to 10 races in a race card, will it hit at least 1 or 2 races on those cards?

    It looks like it could be a consistent enough method that could be used with progression without the exceptions even. Think that might work?

    Thanks much for your help Gary and take care out there!

    Best Regards Len

    • Len – The Primary Rules exceptions are to be considered part of the rules.

      You can always pass races if they don’t look right, or there are too many
      question marks – nothing wrong with that.

      I don’t see how you would run progressions if you are wagering the races in advance – and anyway – give it a go just flat win betting until you get enough races under your belt with it that you can make an informed decision relative to your betting – with the tracks that you play. I would not suggest it. Best of fortune – Gary

  7. Elizabeth

    When I first got the method and read it over, I thought that it was too complicated to take the short period of time you said it took in the ad for it. But then I used it and found that it was easily done, very quick, especially after two or three races. By the time I got to the end of the GP pp today, I was able to do a race in less than a minute, then I went back and went over the jockeys, trainers, any angles or little things that I thought might affect the horse’s performance today. It’s one of the fastest methods I’ve ever used. I agree that the first 3 rules are enough to point you to the most likely contenders in the race.

    I’ll look at the page of examples and am looking forward to applying the Matrix method to upcoming cards and seeing how it does in different kinds of races.

    Elizabeth

    • Elizabeth – Thanks for the comments – the more you work with the method, the more insights will come (on possible tweaks, or additions, etc.). As always – just be sure to keep records of the tweaks versus a ‘control’ of the method as given. – Gary

  8. Gary-

    I haven’t worked many races yet. Thing always feel clunky to start, but I’m figuring that’s just part of the process. Do it enough and you get a rhythm. It feels like the high APV horse should be identified and qualified (per #3 of the secondary guidelines) before the primary qualifying rules. That initially threw me off, only because I wasn’t expecting it, but I also always like to identify which horses are coming into a race with some class.

    Nothing good is easy (most of the time). I hate to generalize, but I will. Lots of folks don’t want to think about purse values and conditions of a race. This method forces you to at least look and I think that’s a very good thing. It’s a solid Class/Form approach that can be used with the ML or odds 5 minutes to post (that’s my plan).

    Thank you for providing the examples and I have always enjoyed the material you provide. I have many pieces from just about all the methods you have presented embedded in my approach to handicapping.

    Take care and I look forward to more of your gems.

    Ron

    • Ron – Thanks for the input – it will help clarify for others. And thanks for the kind words. – Gary

  9. Raymond Strommen

    Gary,
    After reading the methodology first thing that popped into my head was projection rhythms! It would seem that betting into those days specified by PR would increase your bottom line. Your thoughts??
    2 questions:
    1) APV you mention its importance, yet not sure how to apply it. Let me give you a hypothetical
    You have narrowed down the race to 3 horses
    A 12/1 ml
    B 10/1 ml
    C 5/1 ml. C has a huge APV advantage over a and b. Would C become your top choice?

    2) If you have 2 contenders and their morninglines are 5/2 & 8/5 should that be a pass or shouldn’t you assume the low morninglines will equal low final odds. Maybe make 5/1 the minimum??
    Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Looking forward to putting this into action!
    Ray

    • Ray – re Pro Rhy: Yes, it most likely would, but I have not tested that.

      Question #1: I use the top Apv horse in the final qualifying mix automatically (given the stipulation of recency in the rules), but I do not choose it automatically as one of the final two betting qualifiers. For that, it would have to be within one odds of the other contenders. In your example – I would wager on A and B. IF – C had been 9-1 – it would have taken the place of horse B. As an aside: if that APV horse had a huge class advantage over the field and was only going off at 5-1 then it likely has other questionable issues like recency or form. The Method is willing to go against horses like that and for other higher odds horses that have passed through all the filters and therefore show that, potentially, there isn’t that much difference between them and the lower odds runners.

      Question #2: I did not try to predict where the ML odds would go in the actual race – that is tough. You could choose to pass races like that (they are relatively few) – I do pass races where there are only two qualifiers and both are at < 2-1. Best of fortune to you Ray - Gary

  10. Jim Wienclaw

    Gary,
    Can BRISNET data files be used with this?

    Jim

  11. Gary,
    Thank you for getting it to me so quickly. Just in time to play the 5th at Turf Paradise, the 9 horse had ML odds of 15-1 but he was one of two qualifiers so I played him. He came out the gate DEAD LAST. I didn’t even see him in the picture as the 1 horse pulled away from the field UNTIL the stretch. The 9 horse came flying out of nowhere to win the race and payed $25.40!!!!!!!! I have purchased several items from you in the past including the “whole enchilada” and because I have used your methods with great success I knew when I got the email about your new ML Matrix Method that it would be another quality product. This works great because I don’t always have a lot of time for conventional handicapping methods. Thank you again for another quality product and please feel free to use this email as a testimonial.
    Charles

    • Charles – Thanks for the report, and thanks for the kind words. – Gary

  12. Dose Morning Line Magic works on the Australian racing?

    • George – Though I don’t know for sure what you get in the past performance data there – I am almost positive that the factors used in this method would be available anywhere . . . they are basic. As indicated – you do need access to past performance data as is issued in Daily Racing Form / Racing Post etc. – Gary

  13. hi-do i need pps’? or just the morning line from drf?Thanks!

    • Walter – Yes you need past performance data in order to filter out the non-contenders – then the ML is used for final betting decisions – which can then be bet in advance, as final odds do not play into betting.

  14. james cleary

    where do you get the data?thanks

    • Jim – You can use any past performance data source. The method doesn’t require software, so you’ll need the data to be in a format you can read – PDF, actual printout, etc. If you already have software that automatically downloads data, of course you can just use that.

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