Patience

Posted by ginag2 on Aug 30, 2016 in Blog | 4 comments

In a recent post (Hot Odds), we talked about narrowing down the odds at which you would be willing to make a wager – as a way to a more profitable bottom line.

Okay – however, this takes patience.

Unfortunately, a lot of players are short on that commodity – and their game suffers for it. 

I’m going to use actual races to show you (meaning anyone who aspires to race betting profits) that simply applying a little patience can make you a very profitable player – interested?

The Horse Racing Gold Index has issued to our subscribers 1,703 races since Dec. 31st of 2015.  Of those races, 1,602 were playable by the guidelines given. We issue 4 days a week, so there were 139 days involved. That would come out to 11.5 races per day.

The HRG Index is a ranked list of horses – as you might also come up with for races you’ve handicapped – i.e. two to four runners you feel have some sort of shot at winning the race.

But – for simplicity sake in this discussion, let’s just consider the top ranked horse.

Below is the tally for betting all top ranked horses – as single horse wagers – and regardless of odds.  By the guidelines of the Index, of course, many of these horses would have been eliminated because of too low of odds – but betting all of them – without odds filtering (except that all races where the top-ranked horse was 1/2 or lower were automatic pass races, and therefore not counted in the 1,602) would have resulted in: 

In: $3,204
Out: $3026.40
ROI: -5.5%

So – a good handicapper, but one who is an indiscriminate “action” bettor chasing all his top-ranked horses might end up losing somewhere between the track take of (let’s call it -17%), and the decent showing above (which was only a -5.5% loss).

BUT . . .

Using the same exact races – while setting minimum and maximum acceptable parameters of 9/2 to 9/1 odds on the top-ranked horse – yielded ‘only’ 314 bettable races with the following results.

In: $628
Out: $760.20
ROI: +21%

That result could have been ‘honed’ further by making one more stipulation: Don’t wager on that top choice at 9/2 to 9/1 when your second choice is going off at less than 2/1.  You’ll miss a few good payers, but the overall figures go to: 240 bettable races / $480 in / $613 out for an ROI of +28%.

 

Now for the “Patience” part . . .

With 314 betting opportunities in the same 139 racing days – that would have yielded ‘only’ 2.25 win wagers per day. So the process turns the player into one who looks for odds-based spot plays.

And – yes . . . there were some pretty serious losing streaks – there always will be when your average win mutuel is $14.10 and you are wagering single-horse wagers (the hit rate was 17.2%).

So again – patience – with a splash of ice water – and wagering within your means while also allowing for the inevitable losing streaks.

And – there is one more facet to the patience theme . . .

If you want (or need) to make an extra income betting the races – consider these four points:

1. How much is your personal minimum $ acceptable for a meaningful supplementary income?
2. How much are you starting with (i.e. what will a conservative base-bet amount be to start)?
3. How long will it take you to get to your goal?”
4. Do you have the means to buffer this time period – i.e. other funds to use while you build up to the full-time play that gets you to your goal in #1 above?

 

Just for fun – let’s do a bit of conjecturing – as if for an imaginary, average Joe/Joan horse player.

We’ll use the figures mentioned above.  Those are:
1. $14.10 average mutuel
2. 17.2% hit rate
3. 3 plays per day (it would be fairly easy to h-cap a few more races per day in order to get from 2.25 to 3 – as the HRG Index issues only an average of 11 races per racing day)
4. 21% ROI

Let’s also assume Joe is sensible and realizes he won’t soon be buying a yacht with his winnings . . . but would like to see an extra $1500 to $1800 a month in his bank account.

The first thing he needs to know is:  what length of losing streak will he possibly need to withstand?  This will help establish a starting base-bet amount.

The distasteful fact is that for 95% surety that the BR would not be lost in an extended losing streak – a 16-17 race negative run needs to be considered a possibility. That would equate to a $44 base wager ($750/17).

BUT – that is still too high. A common sense, conservative player would never risk more than 5% of BR on any one single horse wager – that would be $37.

If wagering 5 days a week – you would get approx. 15 plays per week times 4.2 weeks per month = 63 bets per month. At $37 – that would put $2,331 through your account in 1 month.  At the projected 21% ROI – you would have (.21 x 2331) $490 profit.

So – within two months, you would have more than doubled your bankroll.

Assume player Joe has the patience to be conservative, and does not change his base-bet amount until the proof of that two months is in. Now he can confidently adjust his base-bet. Five percent of the new BR of $1730 (original $750 + $980 profit) – gives a new base-bet wager of $86.  At the end of one more month he will have accrued  15 x 4.2 x $86 = $5418 x .21 = $1138 in profit.

The bankroll at the end of 3 months stands at $2868. Do a base-bet adjustment and the new wager is $143. Fourth month tally: 15 x 4.2 x $143 = $9009 = profit of approx. $1892 for that month.

So – Joe’s and Joan’s goal of $1500 to $1800/mo. profit would be reached sometime in the 4th month.

Some points:

• The process could be speeded up by adjusting base bet more often (bi-weekly, or weekly, or daily).
  .
• The income could be increased by cautious and conservative addition of exacta wagers – only after win-betting proof and profits have been established (trifectas, superfectas, and mult-race wagers open the potential way up – but also the risk of bankroll loss is far greater, and a much larger starting BR is required).
  .
• You’d need a nest egg to support yourself during those 4 months (particularly in light of plowing back all profits and not taking anything out of the BR until the goal was reached).
  .
• If using the HRG Index, you’d also need the monthly fee, or if using your own methods – the expenses for past performance data, etc.
  .
• “Burnout” can become an issue when doing all the handicapping, and all the race monitoring and wagering yourself (but many love it and a few weeks off once or twice a year will recharge the batteries).

 

However – as I said, all of the above is mere fun conjecture for most – BECAUSE, for some reason known only to the “racing gods” – the majority of folks just don’t have the little bit of patience that is required to make this scenario a reality. Of course, most aren’t interested at all – race betting is not important to them, or is important only for its entertainment value. 

There are quite a few though that could create a small but substantial extra income for themselves . . .

. . . if only they could muster up the Patience to do so.

 

As always – comments welcomed.