Class Ranking Example

I’ve had more queries on where to get the class ratings for various past performance providers – where to get the APV rating – etc . . .  Again I respond – if you don’t have good class rating in your PPs – the easiest way to get one is to switch to a PP provider that has one!       But – barring that, there is a simple way to get it yourself.

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Comparing the relative class levels of a field of horses has always been one of the trickier aspects of handicapping. There is quite a bit of controversy on what denotes “class.”  Using “the simplest answer is usually the best” theory – I think looking at the money is the most straight-forward way to go about it.

This is a game of money. Owners and trainers (unlike most handicappers) are acutely aware of the purse values and how much they stand to win if their horse comes in-the-money.  They’ve got never-ending bills to pay – the horse has got to pay for its keep at least, or the connections are chasing a losing proposition.

Therefore – in answering the question, “where have they been placing this horse (purse values) – and how did the horse fare when in for those varying amounts?” – we can get a handle on “class” as defined by the potential money to be won.

This is why, for the ML Matrix Method, I advised against using so-called class ratings that incorporate speed or par times as part of the equation. That’s not the way I want to judge class.

The last race yesterday at Fairgrounds will serve as a quick example – especially for those that think they ‘need’ the APV ranking – or equivalent – in order to make the Method work . . . that ranking is simply a shortcut – the same horse can be found with a minimum of effort.

This race was a 5k state-bred claimer for nw2l horses – i.e. some of the cheapest horses on the grounds.  Simply scan down the conditions col for each horse noting the purse values in races where the horse ran 1st through 4th (cashed a check). Remember, or jot down the highest two amounts (I have highlighted those for this example) . . .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

27 & 25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

50 & 25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

16 & 14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14 & 11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7 & 16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Only go back one year when doing these class checks)     9 & 14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14 & 14

(horses #7 and #9 were automatic elims – both being at 30-1 on th ML while horse #8 was scratched)

 

My PPs had pointed out #2, Classic Brahms, as the high APV horse (highlighted in red) – but if your’s don’t – It won’t take you long at all to do the scan down the conditions columns, note the two figures – and come up with that same horse.

Since #2 was the high APV horse, it automatically qualified to be in the ‘decision mix’ as long as it had raced within around 60 days (it had raced twice recently).

The other qualifiers were #4 and #10.  The two high ML odds from those 3 qualifiers were #2 and #4.