A HRG Index Guidelines

Race-Passing Guidelines:

We try to issue a late update on each race, but for various reasons, sometimes cannot. So – if one of the following occurs – pass the race.

If fewer than 5 runners start – pass race
– If 5 runners start and the favorite is atop the index at 3-5 or less – pass race
– If 6 runners start and 2 of top 3 Index horses are at less than 2-1 – pass race

– Race is taken off the turf (unless previously re-handicapped for dirt – check surface listing in Index)

 

Explanation of columns: 

The column factors and rankings are to help guide you in your final wager decisions (of course – while always also considering the odds being offered).

There are 5 rankings (of the 33 that we keep stats on) indicated in the “+” columns immediately to the right of the ML (morning line) column. These 5 are the highest ROI factors – quantified and segregated by track/distance/surface.

– The strength of these tracked factors will be shown by the color + sign in the heading box.  The color code importance (ranked by ROI) is: 1st / 2nd / 3rd / 4th / 5th  If no + in one or more of the cells, it means fewer than 5 factors have a positive ROI.

– The column heading “ml” – is the morning line.

 

Decision making:

The order of the Index horses will closely track the ‘color’ + marks in most instances. Occasionally there will be a 3rd or 4th horse with positive factors showing. Let the near post-time odds guide your decision. However any top-ranked Index horse with even one + factor should be an automatic choice at any acceptable odds. “Ties” go to the higher ranked runner.

 

WinBetting Guidelines for “Live-odds” betting . . .

– Bet as late as possible.
– Use 19-1 as high odds cutoff for bet consideration and 9-5 as low odds minimum.

Remember: In general, you are considering the ranks from the top down – if the + factor weightings don’t over-rule. The near post-time odds will determine your final decision on close calls.

Odds guidelines: Require minimum of 4-1 combined odds on any two horse wager where choices come from among top 3 ranked, and 6-1 or higher combined odds if 4th rank is one of the choices – with 4-1 being a minimum acceptable on the actual 4th ranked horse.

We suggest betting two horse for win if odds allow.

Pass race if the top-ranked is at 6-5 or less and also has two + factor markings (*also see Race-Passing-Guidelines at top).


Remember – if one of the Index horses is off at less than bettable odds (9-5), or there is a late scratch – those are not to be considered in the rankings for the odds guidelines above.  You will then ‘move others up’ as if they scratch and/or low odds horse was not in the Index.

 

Win-Betting Guidelines if “Early-bird” betting –

For Morning Line odds, require:
2-1 as minimum acceptable ML odds for top two ranked horses
4-1 as min for 3rd and 4th rank
. . . Pass race if top horse is at ml 8-5 or lower

Prefer by considering + factors.  

– If either of top two is at ML 4-1 or higher – bet automatically
– If all top 3 at 5-1 or higher – bet all 3

 

Exacta-betting Guidelines:  

Use each of the 2 win-bet qualifiers as one of your “on top” horses. Use the remaining Index horses underneath each of those.  

If the race favorite is not in the Index – also include it on the bottom of each ticket

You would then usually have either 6 or 8 combinations (fewer if a late scratch eliminates one of the Index horses).

 

Comments:

* Stay within your limits.  There are usually $1.00 exactas available, or if your bankroll is light, don’t hesitate to skip the exacta until you build it up.

* Odds changes are part of the game. If you are betting live, try to wait until the last possible moment to make your betting decisions and place your wager/s. The odds will still change after you have placed your wagers – even still changing after the horses are running. This is unavoidable, but it will go in your favor as often as it goes against you, so don’t fret it – just be as precise and disciplined as you can be.

* When changing odds near post-time, or whatever other reason causes some confusion/hesitancy in your final decision – as a general guideline;
– choose on the side of making a wager
choose on the side of the higher odds
prefer those dropping from the morning line
prefer higher Index ranks (i.e. 4th rank is least preferred unless good reason – like multiple ‘color rankings’)

 

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