Sucked In

Posted by ginag2 on Aug 12, 2014 in Blog | 0 comments

How many times have you bet on a low odds horse?  Hundreds of times . . . thousands of times?

The great lure in this game – the subtle and perverse attraction to the low-odds horse – is (by reason of the very nature of a pari-mutuel event) the weakness that dooms most players to a negative expectancy.

Unfortunately (or fortunately according to how you use it), the actuality of this game is that the odds on the toteboard are extremely accurate overall.  Therefore the lower odds horses win more often than the higher odds horses – that’s a simple fact of the game. And since it is a natural tendency to want to win more often, players (even otherwise good players) will often get sucked in to win-betting a good looking horse at low odds.

You cannot do that and make profits in the long-term – regardless of what the naysayers, chalk bettors, and ‘fine-line’ value players might tell you.  Why not?
(find out – and also get info on our new white-paper, the “Weak Favorite Advantage” Report)

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Bet Management

Posted by ginag2 on Dec 3, 2013 in Blog | 12 comments

In handicapping – as in life – not everything we think is true (factual) is actually true, nor does it merit our consideration as such.  Anything that can be considered out there is so much more intricate than is possible for us to fathom . . . and what’s really true is always more (or different) than what appears to be true.

Now – after that $65 intro – let’s bring it back down to what really concerns us all:  How to make more profits from a series of wagers.

Part of the figuring out what’s “actually true” might be to get a better handle on what constitutes a “series” of wagers. Most players look at races by-the-race. That is – they tally their bets by how much was bet, and how much was made or lost in an individual race.

What if you completely changed that kind of thinking?

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Risk vs. Reward

Posted by ginag2 on Oct 15, 2013 in Blog | 7 comments

For most players, sooner or later a “happy medium” in their wagering activities is found.  They establish for themselves and settle into a comfort zone where they feel alright with the level of risk versus potential for profit.

– A couple of posts back, we discussed a money management approach – progression betting – which is a higher risk, potentially higher reward way to approach the game.

Progression betting may be of interest to some few players with a tolerance for higher risk (and the bankroll to match), but I think it likely that the far larger proportion of race bettors are conservative in their nature and do not well tolerate (nor can afford) large losses.

– Then in the last post, we brought up the value of studying what the “old time” handicapping gurus had to show us and then applying it to modern racing.

This post will do both . . .

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