Speed 2013

Speed 2013

A serious question:
In general, do you think early speed is more – or less – important than it was – say, twenty or thirty years ago?

Many of the current handicapping pundits and “gurus” like to point out that – since the “crowd” most easily sees and analyzes early speed, those horses are then over-bet and therefore offer little value.

They suggest instead looking at late running horses because the average prices are higher for those types.

Okay – that is likely an accurate evaluation – BUT – and it is a very important “BUT” . . .

what is the percentage of late running horses that win races versus the percentage of early running horses that win races? 

To hit a 12-1 shot that comes from the back of the pack to catch them at the wire is exciting and memorable, but it’s not so exciting when that same type then lose 13 in a row for you – just missing on many occasions while the early running horses are coming in race after race.

*Important point:  when I talk about early running horses, I am not limiting to the “front runners” only. I include any horse that will be able to place itself in a striking position relative to the pace that is likely to be set by the actual front runner in today’s race.

The advantages of being in the first flight (or close) in a race, and to be within striking distance at all points of the race into the stretch– are obvious. These advantages have been discussed at length by many handicapping writers, and I’m sure you are already aware of them . . .

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