Speed 2013

Speed 2013

A serious question:
In general, do you think early speed is more – or less – important than it was – say, twenty or thirty years ago?

Many of the current handicapping pundits and “gurus” like to point out that – since the “crowd” most easily sees and analyzes early speed, those horses are then over-bet and therefore offer little value.

They suggest instead looking at late running horses because the average prices are higher for those types.

Okay – that is likely an accurate evaluation – BUT – and it is a very important “BUT” . . .

what is the percentage of late running horses that win races versus the percentage of early running horses that win races? 

To hit a 12-1 shot that comes from the back of the pack to catch them at the wire is exciting and memorable, but it’s not so exciting when that same type then lose 13 in a row for you – just missing on many occasions while the early running horses are coming in race after race.

*Important point:  when I talk about early running horses, I am not limiting to the “front runners” only. I include any horse that will be able to place itself in a striking position relative to the pace that is likely to be set by the actual front runner in today’s race.

The advantages of being in the first flight (or close) in a race, and to be within striking distance at all points of the race into the stretch– are obvious. These advantages have been discussed at length by many handicapping writers, and I’m sure you are already aware of them . . .

– the better chance not to encounter traffic problems
– the fact that less slop, dirt, and/or plastic back scatter is stinging the horses eyes or being inhaled into its lungs

– the fact that the ‘herd instinct’ – the willingness to settle comfortably into the middle of a pack is not as present a mental obstacle to overcome
– the fact that if an ‘easy’ lead is allowed by others lollygagging behind, the chances of success are then greatly increased for that lone lead horse that is
then able to ‘pace’ itself
, and ration its speed
– etc.

Because of this never-changing dynamic that is part and parcel of horse racing, and will always be so – I maintain that early speed is as important as it ever was and can, in fact, be the key to your future in this greatest of all games. 

And we have a new method that will force you to also believe it – regardless what you think currently – while providing you with easy profits and (counter to what the current batch of gurus say about low-paying early speed horses) an average win pay of $14.00 + . . .

I began re-thinking this a few months back – when I was working on the “Claiming Gold” approach. I always keep and track a wide spectrum of factors/data in my handicapping, for future reference and research, and as a way of being able to constantly ‘tweak’ and optimize my wagering decisions.

As well – and as those of you who have been with us over the years know – I am always looking to simplify what can quickly become a seemingly very complicated endeavor. The importance of speed as a factor in the racing game is obvious and indisputable. The challenge for the handicapper is – how to evaluate speed, and then how to use those evaluations appropriately in order to create an approach that will be profitable.

A thought kept coming into my head.  It was not a new thought mind you – I am sure it is the same thought that has come into the mind of many handicappers – from Pittsburg Phil right on up to you and me . . .

Can you make a living betting only early pace types while (mostly) ignoring all other factors . . . ?

I began back-testing all my wagers since October – adjusting and tweaking a few ideas and factor/elimination/and weighting combinations.  I found an approach that was fast – straightforward – can be done with pencil and paper (or computerized), and that gets higher paying horses with regularity. As good as it showed ‘on paper’ . . . it was even better in real-time betting.

After considering not making the method public at all, I stopped at 100 races (actual total in the published recap you receive with the method ran to 102 races by end of the betting day on Jan. 4th.) to write up the method for distribution.

The ROI on win betting is as good as it gets I believe – at an eye-popping +82% for this 100 race series. Over 300 races it has averaged higher than 50% profit. To put it simply – and to answer the question posed directly above . . .

Yes, you can – and our newest method “Speed 2013” shows you how.

The price point for this lucrative method is set to reflect its value to you.  We were going to limit the number sold (and still may), but decided to let the price be the limiting factor.

Order Here

And – just to whet your appetite a bit (while proving the above mentioned gurus wrong) below are only the top payoffs hit by the method during these 7 days of wagering;

12/26:  $27.80,  $44.60
12/27:  $37.40,  $25.00,  $26.80
12/29:  $29.00,  $29.20,  $23.60,  $19.40,  $21.40,  $48.40
12/30:  $20.20,  $25.00,  $25.00
12/31:  $17.80
1/1:       $24.80,  $23.00,  $19.00
1/4:       $29.00,  $21.80

You’ll want this method in your arsenal – that is my honest opinion . . . and really – a simple statement of fact.

Order Here


Best of fortune to you in 2013 and beyond.         – Gary / Horse Racing Gold


  1. tundratundra

    Ok. one question. Is this reading material for the info method, or a program for my laptop? Just needing to know about taking laptop with me (if necessary) Thanx.

    • Dave – H-capping can be done in advance – no need for laptop at the track. It is not a piece of software . . . old fashioned pencil and paper.

      – Gary

  2. Andrew Q. Serling

    I’m concerned that as I accumulate great wealth with your method, I will start to hurt the payoffs.

    Can you offer any sustenance?

    • Andy – “accumulate great wealth” ?! Man – unless your idea of “great wealth” is extremely lower than mine, I’m afraid you are talking to the wrong person! The title to a book I read (in another lifetime when trading the futures markets) sort of says it all: “Where Are the Customer’s Yachts?” The only people I know of in horse racing that fall into the “great wealth” category are a few of the elite owners – of horses and tracks (and they certainly didn’t acquire that wealth betting the ponies).

      Handicapping can offer one a decent living – beyond that only a handfull ever go.

      As far as affecting the pools – once profits start to accrue, and bet levels begin to build; a. spread wagers into other pools b. try never to bet more than 2-3% of the total pool you are betting into. – Gary

  3. Poly at HAW? I believe it’s a dirt track. AP is poly.

    What I was getting at is that when the major venues are running, just how well will the method hold up?

    And is it possible the smaller tracks may be the real ticket? IOW, just not bother with the big league ones?

    • John – Of course, you’re right on Haw/Ap – mental f*rt on my part. As I always suggest: Handicap more tracks than you wager – then bet into the ones that are showing best with the method you are using. Be ready to substitute and move around as cycles go hot or cold. – Gary

  4. John Sullivan

    Thanks, but I wouldn’t count the inner dirt at AQU as a true major track. I was thinking along the lines of BEL, SAR, KEE, DMR.

    Also, tho you say Dirt and AW, I wonder if the hit % isn’t appreciably higher if plays are confined to Dirt only.


    • John – but none of the tracks you name are running. If you don’t count Aqu as a major track – other than GP – what major tracks that are currently running are you referring to? Since the start of testing – one of the best performing tracks was Hawthorne. – Gary

  5. Three concerns: Does claiming/alw include MCL/MSW?

    Also, I noticed most of your tracks are low-level to mid-range ones. I’m skeptical about any method that seems to work well at low-level venues when then tried at the big leagues.

    Then, since no one has asked, does it seem to work best at dirt tracks? I would tend to think so, as ES doesn’t generally seem so reliable on AW or Turf, by my observation.

    • John – Recommended not to wager in Mdn or mdn clm (if FTS – too many question marks). It works fine at major tracks. As I mentioned, I wanted to show it worked at the lower level tracks as well. I wagered the method today at Aqu . . . it hit for $12.60 winner in the 5th / $6.30 winner in the 6th / Loss in 7th / $13.80 winner in the 8th / Loss in 9th.

      As well – my experience is that a dollar won at a small track spends every beit as good as a dollar won at a major track (?!)

      Only recommended for dirt and poly (no turf). – Gary

  6. andy pincince

    Hi Gary..Thanks for the quick and great answer! Andy from R.I.

  7. Hi Gary,

    A couple of questions on Speed 2013 please.
    #1- What is the average time to handicap a race.
    #2- Do you need data from DRF to implement the method?
    #3- Can the races be handicapped well ahead of time or do you need to make any last minute decisions at post time?

    Appreciate your feed back.


    • Bill – (Also see response to Andy in recent post) 1. About 4 min. per race. 2. You need past performance data from some provider (Bris, TrackMaster, DRF, etc.) 3. We suggest wagering only on horses going off at 2-1 or higher (low-paying favorites are tossed out), so you’ll need to be an active player. I have not tested it for “early-bird” betting. Perhaps you’ll want to do that (using small wagers to test) and report back to us? – Gary

  8. andy pincince

    Hi Gary…Just wondering how long it takes to handicap each track with your new”Speed 2013″ method. Of course, with the results you are getting with it, any amount of time looking for plays will be worth the effort. …Thanks ..Andy

    • Andy – The method recommends handicapping only Claiming, Optional Claiming, and Allowance races for 3 yr olds and older at 4.5 to 8.5 furlongs. The answer to your question, “How long it takes to handicap each track,” – then depends on how many of those types of races are carded on that particular day. The method averages about 4 handicappable races per track per day. It takes about 4 minutes per race – so not long really – on the outside 20 minutes per track. – Gary

  9. spence krull

    I bought Speed 2013 this AM, used it to good effect this afternoon. Played three tracks, cashed alot of win tickets, only one longshot though (12-1). Made a nice profit for the day. Easily paid for the cost of the method.

    • Spencer – Glad to hear it. I had similar results as yourself today – 1 good payer in the 7th at GP for $33 – otherwise
      several 2/1 and 5/2 shots for an okay day all told. Thanks for the report Spence.

  10. wow …Gary …you might just get me back to handicapping 🙂

    80% roi !!? (Im looking at close to 37% now)

    Is this a longshot method or a “spot play ” ? What is the

    win% ? It sounds to me that Speed2013 and the Claiming Gold

    could be used together for some great results..

    both easy to figure and the results you report are amazing!

    Do you think its possible to come up with say 10/12 qualifiers a day from 2/3 tracks ?

    Interesting Gary !! You have me thinking (again) 🙂

    Keep up the good work …

    • Joe – First – congratulations on your solid bottom line – 37% is professional level, and few ever attain those levels of profit.

      The “Speed 2013” method will get you several plays per track per day – around 4 bettable races per day per track on average.

      As far as using the two methods you mention in combination – yes, I think S2013 could be used to replace one of the scoring factors in Clg Gld and increase the efficacy of that method. Going the other direction (adding Clg Gld factors into S2013) I think would lower the average mutuel of S2013 – which are high. I.E. – the more factors you add into any method, the more you then tend to end up on obvious contenders, and the lower the average mutuels.

      I know you’ll like what you discover with the new method. I realized many years back that as a handicapper looking to maintain an edge on the ‘crowd’ I needed to constantly search for viable factors that were overlooked by that crowd and yet basic in their relevance to how a horse race is run. As I mention in the material that comes with the method – we need to accustom ourselves to betting on horses that look somewhat improbable at first glance . . . realizing that a “first glance” is all the ‘crowd’ ever gives. This is particularly true with early speed. People are looking for horses with lots of “1’s” in the early fractions of their past performances – and then they proceed to over-bet the supposed “speed of the race.”

      – Gary

      • What is the win% for this method?

      • George – You’ll get about 50% winning races – this is betting two horses per race. Avg. mutuel around $14.00

  11. Carmen Crisante jr

    hi Gary,most definitely want in on your new early speed method.thankscarmen

    • Carmen – Sure thing – gimme a call (during biz hrs), order via cart, or send the $ to PayPal. Regards – Gary

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