A Ramble
This post will be about – like the old Seinfeld series – nothing in particular . . . a ramble that may turn into a bit of a rant in parts – I’m not sure yet.
To start, Horse Racing Gold gets (along with the comments posted to the blog) a lot of write-in comments that never get posted – comments like (paraphrased);
– If I bet exactly as you say – will I get the same results, or is there subjectivity involved?
– If I use this method, can I make a good/decent income betting?
– I was doing so well at (name the track/s), but now at (name another track/s) I’m not doing very well with the same method
– But – I thought you said . . .
– I really need to make some money – which method should I use?
For our take on these – and more . . .
For those that want strict objectivity – as far as I understand it – there is just no such thing in this universe.
ALL things are subjective.
Everything that a person thinks he knows, sees, experiences – are (for that person) known, seen and experienced only from his own point of view. Our reality is a relative one, and literally – the awareness of any and everything in it is relative to the point of view of the person perceiving.
Absolutely nothing is repeatable exactly as it was done by another. Results of any experiment or undertaking will vary according to who is doing it. The so-called ‘scientific method’ – though the best we have to work with – is actually bunk.
If one handicapper is using a certain approach to the game, and is profiting from it – does that mean that another handicapper can also profit in like manner?
Maybe yes – maybe no . . .
. . . or conversely – could one player turn what was a ‘losing’ method for another around – to a winning one? Maybe . . . and that is the literal truth, and the best (and only) answer that can ever be given.
In past posts, we have discussed the idea of what constitutes a “decent living” from the game. It certainly varies widely. But one important thing that should be grasped by any intelligent player: desperation does not enhance good decision-making.
If you “really need” to make some money quickly – as I’ve stated over and over – betting the races is likely not the best place to be looking.
As with anything, no blanket statement can be made here. Some people are born with ice water in their veins – others fall apart at the drop of a hat . . . some have an inordinate amount of good fortune, others seem to get the butt end of it all . . . some are patient, others are manic, and on and on. So I try to never tell someone ‘exactly’ what to do – it’s not my place, neither is it within my capacity to do so.
All of us experience cycles. Cycles are a universal phenomenon that, whether we’re aware of them or not, affect every aspect of our lives. They are powerful beyond comprehension (think tides, the seasons, etc), so attempting to fight against them can be futile. If a certain approach to the game was going well for you for a particular kind of race, or at a certain track, or at a certain time of the year, and then it changed for the negative – it may be best to back off for a bit. Handicap different/new tracks, or wait until a similar situation (to the successful one) arises.
Patience is golden.
Once a player has been in this game for a few years – a ridiculously obvious, yet profound key to success will make itself known . . . “There’s always another horse race!” The pressure to wager in any particular race or series of races – should be nil.
I – like all other human beings – reserve the right to (and will) change my thinking on some things as time rolls on. That, it seems to me, is the only way life can be lived appropriately. We are not born with wisdom or maturity – it is gained by experimentation, reflection, learning from errors, and trying (or thinking) again in a new (or altered) way.
By any and all means – ruts are to be avoided.
But even the wisdom gained (however great or slight) from 35 years of serious involvement in race betting – is not so profound that I can tell another man or woman exactly how they should approach this challenge. As many different kinds of character and personality that exist in this world – there are very likely that many variations on how to play this game. One size does not fit all!
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I find myself over the years, continually revisiting, and re-researching (?) two main factors of this game: Speed (especially early, but also total), and Odds.
I really now believe that those are THE most basic considerations in this potentially very complex game. One might use other terms; Ability and Value, or Potential and Profits, or . . .
It still always boils down to: Which are the faster horses (in this particular race), and can I make any money betting them (in this particular race)?
I suppose it’s the “in this particular race” that creates all the complexity that creeps into the game. The ever-varying pace mix – trainer mix – surface/distance mix – back class mix – condition cycle mix (and on and on) . . . these may or may not be relevant considerations to apply to this race, and trying to decide can create a ‘fog’ that may interfere with the awareness of the most basic questions that need our best answers;
a. who will lead, or be close to the leader at the second call – and
b. does that horse have the overall ability to then finish competitively – and
c. can I make a long-term profit betting it at the offered odds?
In my (not all that humble) opinion – those three questions need much contemplation – short term, long term, overall term!
I’m going to leave this ramble here . . . but the next post will take up again at this point – and I’ll tell you something extremely interesting on the “short term versus long term” theme.
Best of fortune to you all – and as always, your comments are welcomed.
– Gary
GARY
I GIVE BETWEEN 5 AND 8 45min GOLF LESSONS AT LEAST 5 DAYS A WEEK
AND I LOVE YOUR LINE (patience is golden) WHEN ASKED ABOUT IMPROVEMENT I ALWAYS SAY (the more you practice the luckier you get) FOR ME THAT ALSO APPLIES TO MY HANDICAPPING.NOTHING IN LIVE IS FREE AND IF YOU DONT WANT TO WORK AT IT DONT EXPECT GREAT RESULTS.GREAT POST WITH NOT ONLY IDEAS FOR HANDICAPPING BUT FOR LIFE
Terry – Appreciate the feedback – and the kind words. Golf is a perfect example. I see “duffers” out on the course every day (I live right across the street from a golf course) – who I know have invested a lot of time and money in the game – lessons, equipment, books and video, etc. – not to mention the constant practice of actually playing a few rounds every week. And they stick to it – religiously . . . yet – many players somehow expect handicapping and betting the races profitably – to kind of just fall into their laps without much effort. Ah well – as you said, commitment and luck seem to be correlated. It’s a truism that a lot of players should take to heart. – Gary
Damn Gary!
You ought to write a book on handicapping.
Regardless of the price, I’ll buy it.
Joe Riley B.
And read it more than once. 🙂
I appreciate that Riley – thanks. Gary