Breeders Cup 2014
Alright – Breeders Cup again!
Past Breeders Cups have invariably been the most interesting, challenging, and potentially lucrative race cards of the year – and this has been true each and every year since its inception in 1984. It’s a ‘lock’ that they’ll again live up to that billing this year.
Horse Racing Gold will be issuing our annual Breeders Cup Report as usual this year – and also as usual – we expect to again do very well.
The HRG BC Report will smoke out some very good wagers for you – for win, exacta, and trifecta (and whichever of the other exotics you care to participate in) – it always does.
What can you expect?
As an example – following is a complete race-by-race recap of the bottom line results from last year . . .
Each year the betting guidelines in the HRG Breeders Cup Report recommend, in general, to look for the overlays to the betting line given for each race. We recommend concentrating on the top 4 ranked horses in the Report for finding your ‘key’ horses – along with the long-shot pick.
Our own betting philosophy – is to open our game way up on BC days in order to put ourselves in front of some potentially high payoffs. We therefore single out the key overlays according to the Report’s betting line. We rarely wager on a favorite unless it is 3/1 or higher and is also overlayed to our betting line.
There is one overriding long-term fact about the Breeders Cup races . . .
. . . because these elite fields contain several horses that are entirely capable of winning, there are invariably high-paying winners in a few of the races.
Some would call them “surprises” – but they aren’t really. When this caliber of horseflesh compete against each other – extremely good horses in every race will be severely under-bet. Looking to hit on one or two of these is the strategy we propose – and it has worked extremely well for us over the years.
We have a betting approach for exactas that gives us either 8 or 12 exacta combination per race. For the trifecta, our suggested approach creates a $36 ticket (at the $1 level).
To the actual results of the HRG Breeders Cup Report from last year (below) – we will apply what perhaps the “average” player might bet: $8 win wagers, $3 exacta wagers, and $1 trifecta wagers.
(An individual’s wagering level will of course be whatever they decide, but we do recommend raising your usual risk amounts. Of all racing days each year these are the two days to ‘go for it’)
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Our 2013 Breeders Cup Friday started out beautifully –
First race – Marathon. We wagered the top two from the BC Report; Worldly at 5/1, and Ever Rider at 9/2 along with our given longshot pick, London Bridge at 9/1. London Bridge won and paid $20. We hit the exacta with our 4th horse running second at 7/1 for $192.40, and also got the tri when our top pick Worldly ran third – paid $695.50
Race 1 totals: Win in $24, out $80 / Exacta in $36, out $288.6 / Trifecta in $36, out $695.3 // total in $96, out $1063.90
Second race – Juvenile turf. The top three listed in the Report all came in. The 3rd ranked won it at 6/1 paying $14 as one of the two best overlaid. The exacta paid $46.20, and the tri paid $71.90. Race 2 totals: Win in $24, out $56 / Exacta in $36, out $69.3 / Trifecta in $36, out $71.9 // total in $96, out $197.2
Third race – Dirt Mile. We missed this completely (with our top horse running second at 7/1). Race 3 totals: Win in $24, out $0 / Exacta in $36, out $0 / Trifecta in $36, out $0 // total in $96, out $0
Fourth race – Juvenile Fillies Turf. The two overlaid from our top three ran one-two. Win paid $15.80, exacta paid $158.40, missed the tri. Race 4 totals: Win in $24, out $63.2 / Exacta in $36, out $237.6 / Trifecta in $36, out $0 // total in $96, out $300.8
Fifth race – Distaff. The Report indicated it would be a good race to just watch with only 6 starters in an elite field. We passed on win betting as all three of the top Report horses were off at 5/2 or less. But also as indicated in the Report, we had suggested betting against the favorite, Royal Delta, so we played an abbreviated exacta and tri. Hit both – Exacta in 18, out $42.60 / Tri in $36, out $87.8 // total in $52, out $151.7
With a great profit day under our belt, we were hankering for Saturday . . .
First race – Juvenile Fillies. Started out this day with a pin in the balloon – missed everything in this race. Race 1 totals: Win in $24, out $0 / Exacta in $36, out $0 / Trifecta in $36, out $0 // total in $96, out $0
Second race – Filly-Mare Turf. Our top horse won the race, but odds too low, so we missed all here again. Race 2 totals: Win in $24, out $0 / Exacta in $36, out $0 / Trifecta in $36, out $0 // total in $96, out $0
Third race – Filly-mare Sprint. Our top horse won again – and at barely acceptable 3/1 odds. Race 3 totals: Win in $24, out $32 / Exacta in $36, out $87 / Trifecta in $36, out $0 // total in $96, out $119
Fourth race – Turf Sprint. Our top horse ran second, and our second ranked horse won – but at odds too low. Race 4 totals: Win in $24, out $0 / Exacta in $36, out $0 / Trifecta in $36, out $0 // total in $96, out $0
Fifth race – Juvenile Turf. Two of the top 4 were under-laid, so we played the other two along with the longshot pick. The Longshot won and paid $23.00. Race 5 totals: – Win in $24, out $92 / Exacta in 36, out $161.70 / Tri in $36, out $0 // total in $96, out $253.7
Sixth race – Sprint. Missed. Race 6 totals: – Win in $24, out $0 / Exacta in 36, out $0 / Tri in $36, out $0 // total in $96, out $0
Seventh race – Turf. We passed here – just couldn’t bet against Wise Dan (nor bet on him at 4/5)
Eighth race – Classic. Our third-ranked horse won, but wasn’t overlaid to the betting line. Our long-shot pick also ended up being an underlay as was Game On Dude. We went after some of the other overlays, but missed. Race 8 totals: – Win in $24, out $0 / Exacta in 36, out $0 / Tri in $36, out $0 // total in $96, out $0
When the smoke cleared – for the two days, twelve races wagered – we had profits of: Win ROI of +52.6% an Exacta ROI of +123% and a Tri ROI of +127%.
If a player had wagered at the amounts listed above – dollar profits were $955.00. It was not an exceptional year for the Report by any means – we’ve had several with substantially higher returns.
The Breeders Cup Report will be around 25 pages of critical info – packed with all the facts and stats you need to make profitable decisions come BC Friday and Saturday. Our betting line, and longshot picks are crucial for finding the value, structuring your exotics tickets, and putting yourself in front of some potentially huge payouts. The Report price is $25.
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By-the-way, Kentucky Derby 2015 will be upon us before you know it. There will be future-book wagering, and you’ll need to know the odds in order to make good betting decisions – here is a good place for that: 2015 Kentucky Derby odds
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Looking forward to an exciting BC this year! Does this report give insight to superfecta wagering strategies? Or do you recommend not going down that road?
Dave – The BC Report won’t discuss specific strategies for the superfecta, but it will suggest a strategy for the trifecta. The 4th slot is almost always then one of three choices; repeat the 3rd slot – add “x” number of other runners – hit the ‘all’ button.
Whether or not to play the superfecta is a matter of bankroll size (and even of having a separate superfecta bankroll) and personal risk tolerance. If a player has the money to utilize – then this is the day(s) to attempt it – the potential for a monster score will be there.
For those who like the challenge and lack the bankroll – there will be 10 cent superfectas offered again this year.
Hears to you hitting a doozy! – Gary