Indecision Paralysis

Posted by ginag2 on Jun 24, 2014 in Blog | 2 comments

Indecision . . .

What causes it? Why is it sometimes such an overwhelming feeling?

Of course, if you’ve just lost several wagers in succession, and see the bankroll diminishing fairly rapidly – then it seems almost a natural response. 

Nature has evolved to protect us in this way. It’s why we’ve survived and flourished as a species – because we think about things that cause us pain, and tend to avoid those things in the future.

But – digging deeper – I think there are three important things going on here – primary things that can lead to inconsistent wagering, and lowered bottom-line profit . . .

We are involved in a game that pounds (and confounds) us with information overload. This is why I think players like the ‘black-box’ answer (other than the time-saving) . . . so that they don’t need to deal mentally with so much information.

One might think lots of information would be a good thing – right?  But the result of having access to all that information very often leads to what’s been termed, “analysis paralysis.” Rather than clarifying – after considering all the many factors for which we have stats and information, we are beset with ever more possibilities, ‘what ifs,’ and alternative scenarios.

Then – if we make a decision (make a wager) – lose – and then later can plainly see that we focused on the wrong thing in making that decision (for that particular race), and it’s obvious that the winner was right there in front of us – if only we’d put more weight on that ‘other’ factor we’d seriously considered . . .

This, of course, can lead to self-doubt – especially since the brain seems to recall those “bad beats” and “bad decisions” far more readily than it remembers the good decisions.

And self-doubt leads to hesitation and indecision.

 

So how does a bettor overcome this inclination that seems to be almost second-nature?

Let’s look at it in the light of using a particular handicapping method – whether one of Horse Racing Gold’s, or one of your own, or a synthesis. 

I have always suggested:  Test a method on paper first.

Now – paper tests always have a way of turning out better than real-money wagering, but that is where to start. You get a “feel” for it – you tweak a little bit here and there (which by-the-way then requires a new testing phase to compare the tweak to your ‘control’ – the method as originally given). You gain a conviction that the potential is there.

Next – begin real-time betting at a ‘light-bet’ level. This allows a bit more ironing-out, and conviction and skill both gain in strength.

. . . After the player has a decent real-money test under his belt at this lower bet level, he can move to a regular campaign-level approach – using full bankroll and appropriate bet amounts.

What will have happened during this process?

•  The player will have made the method “his own.”
•  She will have gained the strength of her convictions, and be willing and able to pass through tough streaks and bad beats – without wavering, or
  falling into indecision, and ‘trigger-finger paralysis.’
•  He will be willing to live or die with his decisions (and happily – we are participating in an event where this is not literal!).

So – I guess I could close by offering a summation . . .

Cinch it up, and then let ‘er rip!!

 

– Gary