Ky Derby 2016
For me – the Kentucky Derby marks the start of the ‘good’ time of the year.
For others, it might be Memorial Day – traditional start of summer on the last Monday in May . . . or the start of the Major League baseball season in first week of April . . . or the Vernal Equinox, or the last frost date – whatever, but for dyed-in-the-wool horse racing fans – it’s the “Derby.”
Life (at least horse-racing life) seems to wake up again as Derby Day approaches. It never fails to excite, and a happy anticipation builds towards that first Saturday in May. The old bankroll can ‘wake up’ again as well. The Derby has had some monster payouts in its recent history . . .
Win pay off bombs?
The Derby has paid $50 or higher ten times – and its paid over $100 three times . . . two of those came in the last 10 runnings; Giacomo at $102.60 in 2005, and Mine That Bird at $103.20 in 2009.
$2 exacta payoff doozies?
$1,229 in 2001, $1,300 in 2002, $2075 in 2009, and the record – $9,815 (!) in 2005
Trifecta bank runs?
$11,418 in 2006, $12,238 in 2001, $18,373 in 2002, $41,501 in 2009, and the topper – $133,105 in 2005
Superfecta life-changers?
$62,987 in 2001, $91,765 in 2002, $101,285 in 2010, $278,503 in 2009, and the eye-watering all-time high payput – $864,254 in 2005.
While re-checking these figures, I noticed a little bit of an intriguing pattern that has been developing . . .
Since 2002 there has been a 4-3-4-3 win payout grouping.
In the four runnings from 2002 through 2005, the average win pay was $45.90. Then in the 3 runnings from 2006 through 2008, the average pay was only $10.90. The following four years of 2009 through 2012 jumped back up to $49.40 – but the last 3 years 2013 through 2015 again dropped back down to $9.20.
Now – Im not going to read too much into that – but are we set for a new series of higher payers?
Nyquist will come into this year’s race as the solid favorite. However, there are several improving – and intriguing – horses that will offer juicy odds and that could set up some very good payoffs.
We always spread a bit wider in the Derby – we’ll be in several of the pools, and putting ourselves in line to hit big enough to make it one of those very memorable years!
Our annual Kentucky Derby Report will be out on the Thursday evening before Derby Saturday – and as usual it will include Friday’s Kentucky Oaks as well. The HRG Ky. Derby Report will be filled with the kind of data and info you need to help you make the most profitable decisions on the first Saturday in May:
- insightful tidbits
- projected pace considerations
- longshot potential
- and our suggested Betting Line
A life-changing hit? Who knows? But at the least, you’ll be in a better position to put yourself in front of that possibility.
And we’ll go a step further in helping you have that chance . . .
As a special for those reading this blog post – we’ll offer a $5 discount. But you need to promise that you’ll put it on one of the ‘long shot’ horses that you decided to leave out (?). You know – the one that you just can’t quite justify including on a ticket – the 15-1 to 30-1 shot you had a little positive twinge about, but would have left out . . . toss this $5 on that one’s nose (or a flyer exacta) – just for fun! 🙂
The price of the special Kentucky Derby/Kentucky Oaks Report is the $22.
If you order at the link below, you’ll pay only $17 . . . but remember your promise!