Progression Betting
Want to have a way to recover losses after a losing streak that will work 99 times out of 100? (We’ve got a gratis spreadsheet for you – how to get it further down in the post)
One of the comments to the L&B blog post recently – got me to thinking about writing a short post on progressions – again. Several years back I wrote an article on progression betting that is still available over on the Horse Racing Gold main site.
Generally, I avoid such articles because there are problem gamblers out there, and I just don’t want to encourage that type. But – here goes anyway – with this warning: If you sense any of that in you – that desire to lose control and to risk more than you have to lose, or more than you have set aside for risk ventures . . . then it would be best if you just don’t read this post. I’m very serious here.
Progressions are riskier than flat betting – period.
But then – we have chosen a game of risk have we not? So the thought occurs – why not set up a progression that courts losing streaks, and will – when they occur – actually gain more profits than if they hadn’t happened.
What?!
The key here (that would either take you to the bank – or down the tubes) – is how the progression is set up.
First – you need records of your actual bets where all wagers used a similar approach. That is, you need accurate results records for a long series of wagers where you were not betting willy-nilly, or jumping around trying different “methods” or “systems” – doing one thing one day or week, then something significantly different the next.
Anyway – if you then (from those records) had a dependable hit percentage figure (you knew pretty closely what your expected strike rate was), and a verifiable average mutuel on your winners – you might then think about trying the following approach (and please think hard – this is not for everyone) . . .
Point 1. What is your hit rate? For this example, let’s call it 34% (one-horse betting).
Point 2. What is your average mutuel? For this example, let’s call it 5/2 = say $7.20
Point 3. What would be the maximum losing streak you could expect – given a 99% sure expectancy that it would never be exceeded? Restated: You need to know how many losses you could take in the worst scenario (i.e. 99 out of 100 of your losing streaks will be this length or less, and only one or fewer out of a hundred of your losing streaks could be expected to be longer).
Point 4. What would then be the maximum draw-down on your bankroll when you encounter that maximum expected losing streak?
Point 5. What size bankroll would you need given the above information, and how would you structure your wagers – including base bet amount, and level of aggressiveness on the wagers once you are into the progression?
Given the above parameters (for a good, but not great handicapper) – the 99% sure maximum losing streak would be 11. Further – 50% of the losing streaks would only be 2 . . . 25% of the time they would be 4 . . . 10% of the time they would be 6.
This player could then set his progression to begin only after 6 losses, and he would be 99% sure that a winner would be hit somewhere in the next 5 races.
With this information, the progression could be set to be as aggressive as necessary so that losses would usually be recouped, and profits made when that hit came.
Examples . . .
Let’s say the winner came on the last wager of the series and came in at the player’s avg. mutuel, and that this player was using am extremely aggressive “double-up” progression . . .
bet # |
$ in |
pays |
$ out |
BR |
tot in |
tot out |
ROI |
1 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$680.00 |
$1,152.00 |
1.694 |
|
2 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
3 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
4 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
5 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
6 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
7 |
$20.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
8 |
$40.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
9 |
$80.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
10 |
$160.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
11 |
$320.00 |
$7.20 |
$1,152.00 |
The ROI on the series (that would have been a monster loser if flat betting) was +69.4 % profit. And you can see that a bankroll minimum of $700 would be needed. Of course any size bankroll can be used to start. If the initial bet was only $2 – then the bankroll needed would be only $150.
What if the bet hit was only a small one?
bet # |
$ in |
pays |
$ out |
BR |
tot in |
tot out |
ROI |
1 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$680.00 |
$768.00 |
1.129 |
|
2 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
3 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
4 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
5 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
6 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
7 |
$20.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
8 |
$40.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
9 |
$80.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
10 |
$160.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
11 |
$320.00 |
$4.80 |
$768.00 |
Even with only a 7/5 horse completing the progression, the ROI is still +13%
And if, by chance, the ‘clearing’ hit was on the higher end . . .
bet # |
$ in |
pays |
$ out |
BR |
tot in |
tot out |
ROI |
1 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$680.00 |
$1,984.00 |
2.918 |
|
2 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
3 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
4 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
5 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
6 |
$10.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
7 |
$20.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
8 |
$40.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
9 |
$80.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
10 |
$160.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
||||
11 |
$320.00 |
$12.40 |
$1,984.00 |
An incredible +192% profit was gained on this progression series.
Now – of course there are an almost infinite number of ways that the series hits and losses could come . . . AND – we would recommend a less aggressive progression.
*NOTE: Our P3+ software will show you the optimal way to set up your progressions, and the approach we suggest therein is – well – the best way to do it.
* For the promised spreadsheet (with the formulas included that will allow you to do this type of analyzing, and setting of proper progression parameters), you’ll need to have Excel or compatible, and request it via a comment to this blog post in the comment area below.
Of course – what a player really hopes for is a steady diet of winners with a rock-solid ROI. But barring that (and so many of our subscribers lament about their losing streaks) the above discussion just might give you some ideas on how to beat those losing streaks, and turn your bottom-line around in the process.
Last thought: I can hear several of you saying, “Yeah, but what about the one-in-a-hundred streak when the losses go past the 99% sure maximum expectation?!
. . . You need a secondary back-up bankroll so that you can re-start.
The HUGE likelihood is that this once-in-a-blue-moon streak won’t occur early on, so profits accrued can be sent into, and establish this back-up BR – but in the rarest of cases when it happens right away – you need to have considered the possibility and to have prepared for it.
Again – this post is “food for thought” . . . Your decisions are, of course, always only your own.
Comments welcomed – Gary
hi gary guy here would like a copy of the spreadsheet for the progressive bettting if you are still offering it
Hi
Sure would love to get your spreadsheet
Came across your ad for P3+ recently.
Toying with buying after so many failure programs.
Thanks
Would love a copy of your spreadsheet.
Mike – You got it. Will send via email. – Gary
Hi Gary,
I’m a big fan of progressive systems. I use mine on Baccarat. I’m interested to see your system because I have a horse track right down the road from me. Please send me a copy of your spreadsheet. Thanks! -Tony
Tony – The spreadsheet is not a “system” – but it will allow you to know the best parameters to apply in order to optimize a progression to your own wagering results according to the level of risk that your choose. Spreadsheet is on its way! – Gary
I would love a copy of the spreadsheet.
I am an expert at Excel and math, and will be glad to give you my feedback.
RJS
Hello,Is it possible to see what the index looks like for a prior day?Jim
James – Have sent you a pm. – Gary
Just getting caught up….awesome article. I still use p3 ..
Do you still have the spreadsheet available?..
Thanks
Joe
Joe – Sure thing, I’ll send it right out to you. – Gary
Gary,
Very interested in your spreadsheet. I opened an account on twinspires and have yet to find a reliable money management system. Very interested in using your spreadsheet to see how it would have fared on past results. Please send the spreadsheet.
Ryan – In order to utilize the spreadsheet optimally, a fairly large historical data base is needed. One should know their approximate length and frequency of “losing streaks.” If that is known and with the spreadsheet to assess and verify the risk/reward ratios . . . then a progression can be set up (I strongly suggest using our P3+ software) that will raise ones overall profits while lessening the chance of serious bankroll depletion. Sheet on its way! – Gary
Please send spreadsheet.Going to Gulfstream this January and need help.Thanks
James – You got it – best of fortune at Gp!
Would like to look at your spreadsheet. Usually like payoffs on trifectas and superfectas. Very high rate of return for .50 and .10. Also lots of fun. This looks like a sheet for winners only right? Separate bankroll.
Thank you
Gail – Sent. Be very careful trying to apply this to multi-horse wagers. This is for win betting. – Gary
Dear Gary
I am always interested in staking strategies – I have a progressive system which I received many years ago, but unfortunately it proved unwieldy! I would be very grateful to get the spreadsheet and see how it fares.
Thanks for a great site.
Linda – You got it – and thank you for the “great site” kudo! – Gary
Very good and interesting article,Thank you and can i have the spreadsheet
Henry – thanks – sure thng on the spreadsheet. – Gary
Hi Gary,
Have read many of your articles on horseracing and have ordered a couple systems from you as well. Don’t seem to have the time that i would like to have to play the hossies like i would like to. To busy working the Rancho that i have here in new mexico. Excellent reads none the less. I hope it’s not to late to ask you for the recovery spreadsheet in regards to losing streaks. Sure would like to see it. I play the horses on the internet, but only on paper. I have a hard time with it but enjoy it anyway. Maybe some day if i keep messing with it.
Thanks Gary & Take Care
Len – Thanks for the comments. I once lived in Denver for nine years – got down to northern New Mexico fairly often, but never any further south than Santa Fe. You’re right – racing is a stern mistress and she requires a whole lot of attention and time! Don’t give up the challenge. Spreadsheet on it’s way. – Gary
Gary-
After having a particular bad Del Mar meet with a few longshots thrown in would like to try the spreadsheet to see if it would of helped. Thank you.
Gary-
I am really enjoying the Sniper Method, and would like to apply the spreadsheet to it. Will try it out on paper first.
Robert
Hi Gary, I would love to try using your spreadsheet. I’m on a losing streak at the moment just paper betting, so this will really help me to figure out where I’m going wrong. Thanks for your help.
Very good and interesting article,Thank you and can i have the spreadsheet
Hi Gary read ur article on loss recovery, I like to see that spreadsheet. is that like using the kelly or martingale theory?
Ciao Vito
Vito – Spreadsheet on its way via email. No, it has nothing to do with either betting approach you mentioned. It is a risk assessment tool that will show you how to structure your progressions. – Gary
HMMM….YOUR PROGRESSION METHOD … POSSIBLY, MAY HELP MY INSIGHT INTO AN AREA I’M NOT FAMILIAR WITH…..THANKS FOR MAKING IT AVAILABLE ( PLEASE SEND ) ….ENJOY YOUR SITE
BEST REGARDS/ & THANKS……pbruce
PB – If you are unfamiliar with progression betting, you might want to read an article I posted years back over at the Horse Racing Gold site here:
http://horseracinggold.com/Progression-Betting.htm It will give you the basics, the spreadsheet I’ll send you will give you the formulas that will enable you to make intelligent decisions on the risk/reward ratio of your proposed progression series. – Gary
Always been a little skittish about progression wagering. Many a dream has been shipwrecked on the Martingale Atolls. But I’d sure like to have your formulae available… just in case I need to stick my toes in the water. Thanks.
Dave – Appreciate the comment (love the phrasing!). With proper use of the spreadsheet, you’ll be able to control the risk to your liking and pretty much eliminate the possibility of losing any of those toes. – Gary
Gary-
All of your products have helped me become a better horseplayer in some way. Please send the progression spreadsheets.
Thanks,
Joe
Joe – Appreciate the comment – spreadsheet on the way. – Gary
Would love a copy of your excel spreadsheet Gary. Progression betting has always been an interest of mine. Dr. Anthony’s “Betmaster” is the best progression I’ve seen but you have me curious. Thanks.
Joe – Thanks for the comment. As you likely know, Robert and I go back a ways – he’s a good man, and his information is solid. The spreadsheet I’m sending out is not a progression method per se – but rather formulas for analyzing one’s own betting in order to know how to set up the progression to whatever risk level one is willing to take. I think everyone will find it useful. Its a keeper. – Gary
Hey Gary,
I’ve been doing pretty well with Speed 2013. I’ve added a few parameters myself. I would love to get the progression spreadsheet and try it out. Thanks.
Mark – Good to hear you are working with S2013 and “making it your own.” As we’ve said many times over – tweaks and changes (if they come after good record keeping, and sufficient research) to our, or any methods – are not only positive, but inevitable. That’s just how the human brain works. Spreadsheet on its way. – Gary
Hi 🙂
Now this is an entirely different look at progressive betting. Something that I have considered for quite some time. I am very interested in perusing these spreadsheets to get a better grip on your idea. Most writers state that progression is worse in the long run than flat betting, however they are basing their conclusion on an infinite series of trials. At my age I don’t expect to have anywhere near that length of trials left.
Gary,
I am trying hard to improve my handicapping as well as betting.
Lately, I have been going over my stats to see whether there was
a way to place most of my bets at once rather than waiting for final odds. The spreadsheet will give me some additional food for thought, thank you.
Gary, I would like that spreadsheet. Would be interesting to see how it helps with the Speed 2013 method.
Once again thanks for putting out a great web site. Your thoughts and suggestions has made a big impact on how to approach all areas of this sport. Please forward the spread sheets you mention in your article.
SM
Stan – Thanks for the kudos – always good to know our efforts are appreciated. – Gary
I can’t learn enough about betting.
Please send the spreadsheet.
Peter – You’re right about that, at least for me also – it has been a lifetime study. – Gary
gary i would like to see that spreadsheet. i play standard breds but your website has some very interesting and helpful info.The article on potential is extremely insightful, and is the way i try to look at harness races. Several things i look for when trying to predict improvement are young horses getting more experience, post position change(i know most harness players note that but if a horse has had bad posts for several races then their form is darkened),equipment changes(excluding the sulky) and the obvious trainer/driver change, class movement, and last race trip. Sorry to ramble but i think that is he way to find a large percentage of value plays.i.e. horses undervalued by public. thanks again for your site and the information you provide.
rocco spano
Rocco – Thanks – and thanks for the input. – Gary
Gary,
Interesting article, as always you give us enough information to
think about & apply for individual needs.
Please send the spreadsheet.
Thanks…
Larry – Thanks – I predict the spreadsheet will be a tool you’ll keep in your arsenal forever. – Gary
interesting article – i’d like to check out a copy of the spreadsheet. cheers
Gary, been busy for a while and not played the ponies for a couple of months. This sounds like a good protection for getting back “in the saddle.” Please send the spreadsheet – I am a computer nerd and would love to play with your creation and see what happens. Thank you sir – U R Always full of great ideas.
— Joe
Joe – Busy is good. Over the last month and a half, I rehabbed a house and moved into it . . . But wow! – the old body is really complaining about that 😉
You’ll enjoy the spreadsheet. – Gary
Thanks Gary. Can I please get spreadsheet?
I am currently using the BB Builder and would like your free down load about progressions
Thank you
Gary….as always, food for thought. Have long been a fan of using progression type betting when I can justify the risk/reward(and when I have sufficient bankroll). Please send me the spreadsheet for review.
Thanks again for your insight!
Carl
Carl – In the post (and the spreadsheet will make it clear), I mentioned 99% sure confidence level in the parameters to be set for the progression . . . of course, many players might be perfectly willing to accept a greater risk than that (I do), but if one has good records – it’s nice to be able to fine tune it down to whatever level of risk one is willing to accept. – Gary
Would love to see it. Losing streaks are hard to overcome.
Just started playing with your L & B System and so far it looks promising. I have semi-automated it and now I need a little bit of manual tweaking. I think your losses spreadsheet would be a good addition. I’m looking forward to receiving it, thank you.
Bill – Thanks – keep us posted on your progress with the L&B method – Gary
I have used a progressive betting method for over 40 years; but have limited my bets to a set amount each day I play. I use a bankroll with 2 backup bankrolls. This has allowed me to be sucessful; but with win betting pools getting smaller with the onset of more exotic wagers becoming attractive to new patrons it is becoming less successful. Please send your spreadsheet.
Gerald – Thanks for the input – always good to hear from “boots on the ground” old-timers who have figured out how to survive and prosper in this tough game. – Gary
Gary
I would like that spreadsheet, curious to how different it is to P3
Thanks
always been a fan of progressive betting….would welcome any input you have on this subject thank you,
worth a look see
I think that sports gambling pros have determined that if your hit rate is around 53 percent, and you bet to win 3% of your bankroll at the 10-11 odds, then you can come out ahead in the long term . By long term I mean 200 bets. A possible progression could be that you add your losses, or a percentage of your losing bets, into your bankroll and keep betting to win 3% of a notional bankroll. I think some people in horse betting can approach the 50% win rate while betting on two selections and do so with a higher average payout than the 10-11 that sports bettors get.
P.S Please send your progression spreadsheet.
Thank you
Gary,
I like to take a look at the progression worksheet on some past results. Thanks
I would like to have a copy of the spreadsheet as well. My contender selection is looking great so far. Now I want to run each one through the spreadsheet to determine which one is the best play.
Please send the LOSSES recovery spreadsheet please
Hey Gary been awhile been playin with your Lodsta an’ butta system,it works ,after I worked out some bugs …mainly what tracks ,small ones can kill ya (big odds drop at the last to kick you out of the bet .Still learnin,but showing promise.Thanx
So you can send me the progression system,and I’ll play it on paper for my previous bets.Been playin with harness with the L an B ,still a workin progress.
Later Peter
Peter – Thanks for the update. – Gary
Interesting article and approach…and yes I would be interested in taking a look at the spreadsheet. Thanks!!