Pulling the Trigger
Betting decisions . . . when to – when not to.
How you decide whether or not to “pull the trigger” in any particular race may be the most important element in the entire process.
From the time you begin considering a race for betting (whether it be looking at the past performance data, or the tote board) to the time you cash, or tear up the ticket – the moment of decision making – the final commitment to risk – is the most critical.
Though this is the most important moment, it cannot be divorced from the process itself – i.e. everything leading up to, and following that moment.
Many players might assume that the handicapping is the crucial part of the process. But handicapping per se – identifying the most likely horse to win the race – can be a kind of trap.
There is an inherent difficulty in making long-term profits when your main factor for ultimately making a betting decision is based on how good the horse looks in the past performances. The pari-mutuel system itself makes sure of this. Others will see the same positive factors, also make their decisions based on those . . . and the odds go down to levels that are not returning a “fair” amount.
What then would be the ‘thing worth knowing’ that could set your decision making apart – that could make it “spot on?”
The problem with using only the ‘fundamental’ approach – i.e. using the obvious factors as visible in the past performance data – is that the final odds are going to be shaped not just by that information, but by ALL the other information out there
. . . from “inside information” from the stable – to veterinarian info – to information on other horses in the race, etc. –
and therefore most important of all: the actions of other sharp bettors who may have this information – have not been factored in.
Since we can’t possibly know all of these kinds of things, we cannot reliably depend on, and make betting decisions derived only from our handicapping process.
No matter how good you become at handicapping, you will never be able to anticipate all the ways that unknown and unpredictable factors, and indeed racing luck itself – can make you ‘wrong’ and cause you to lose money.
As I’ve discussed many times before, post-time odds must be considered. You need to be adequately rewarded enough to compensate for the vagaries and unknowns of the game.
If you cannot establish ‘rules’ for this (i.e. acceptable odds parameters outside of which you will only rarely be enticed to wager) – you will remain little aware of the “flow” of the betting, and not be able to thereby deduce the actions of other smart bettors. Many of your losing races will then take on the color of having been “stiffed,” or “rigged” – or you’ll blame yourself for not having ‘seen’ some handicapping factor that after-the-fact makes the winner almost obvious.
The result of this is that emotions may very well get the upper hand, and the efficacy of your betting will decline even further.
The “trigger-pulling” moment – the best decision on when to do it and when to abstain . . . is in your mind.
As long as you haven’t become married to your pre-race handicapping, and if you have sensed the flow of the wagering and what the “money” is telling you, your (let’s call it) sub-conscious will be the best possible decision maker at the final moment of truth.
People see what they’ve trained themselves to see – everything else remains invisible though it may be right there in front of them.
Race betting is an uncertain process in an uncertain world, but being even the slightest bit more aware than the ‘crowd’ will provide you with an edge that – if applied with confidence and consistency – will put you firmly into the black.
As always – your comments and additions are welcomed – Gary
As one who enjoys playing the exotics, handicapping a race to focus in on those contenders with both a realistic chance to win and a reasonable price, watching the toteboard odds action has become almost a second nature….thanks to many ideas and pointers learned from Gary over the years….So often, those horses needed to finish out a solid paying exacta or trifecta can be found from their action on the toteboard…particularly those dropping by half from their morning lines….I have often benefited nicely from combining my handicapping with observing the odds action….
Carl – Thanks for the comment. Always appreciate insights from the “old hands” – they can really help those just starting out (or remind the experienced ‘cappers of things they might not be emphasizing enough!). – Gary
THANKS FOR YOUR THOUGHTS ON THIS MAKES THINGS CLEARER
Just because a horse drops from 4/1 to 2/1 doesn’t mean anything. A line maker made him 4/1, and maybe 2/1 was what his true odds should have been all along, and his morning line was off which happens a lot and the public adjusted to the correct odds. You will go broke betting these kinds of horses, look for value in horses that the public isn’t betting, their only right 30% of the time, that gives you 70% to beat the favorite.
Jack – Thanks for the comment. Morning lines – if made correctly by a competent line maker (not always the case!) are meant to encourage betting from the public, so most often pegged higher than they should be for solid figure horses, and lower than they should be for long shots. Every race is different, but in general – I would say in Terry’s example – the action on the 6/1 horse is most likely not crowd money – not band-wagon jumpers – which is why (other than simply the higher payoff) it would be more attractive to me. – Gary
FOR ME THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE FLOW OF BETTING,IS A HORSE THAT GOES FROM 6/1 to 4/1 THE SAME AS A HORSE GOING FROM 4/1 TO 2/1 HOW DO YOU JUDGE WHICH IS THE BETTER BETTING HORSE??? HARD TO TELL FOE ME A LOT OF TIMES AND SURE ENOUGH THE 4/1 WINS AND THE 2/1 RUNS OUT AND I HAVE SAT ON THE SIDE LINES
Terry – A few things relative to your comment . . .
1. If your approach has you going for the horse that has dropped the most – then a 4/1 that came down from 6/1 has garnered only 6% more of the win pool betting than it’s morning line predicted. The horse that went from 4/1 to 2/1 has attracted 13% more of the betting than ml predicted.
2. According to your own ‘required’ minimum return for a race – you could bet them both and if either wins, you’d still get .50 cents on the dollar.
3. Horses that drop in half from their morning line are always worth noting.
4. For me, if I had made both legitimate contenders in the race by my pre-race handicapping, the 4/1 horse is much more attractive – especially if the 2/1 horse happens to be the favorite.