Speed Ratings

Speed Ratings

Speed ratings – class ratings – par times, and the various combinations, permutaions, and comparisons of these cause a lot of confusion in the game today.

Each time we offer a method that has as one of its factors the comparison of horses’ speed ratings, or Beyer figures, or Racing Post numbers – there have been questions.

And those questions are valid.

There has been a proliferation of companies who offer their own version of a “rating” for each race in a horses’ history. Players, once committed to a particular one of these services, are reticent to switch, and do the tough job of re-researching how their handicapping decisions might have been different (for better or worse) if one of the ‘other’ outfit’s ratings had been used.

I’m not going to profess to know all the subtle differences, or try to establish a pecking order for the various services (it’s very likely I am not even aware of some of the ratings services out there). Neither will I explain the mechanics behind getting the figures. Books have been written on this, and if you want to pursue it – it is a fascinating subject.

In this post I will simply give a few thoughts on this issue, and also provide a chart I found online that will help those of you who have asked ratings-related questions of us recently. This is in particular response to those who asked those questions in regards to the new freebie method we gave out – “Marquee Race Method.”

In the “old days” there were the DRF speed ratings and that was it. The daily track variant was then added for those who wanted a more realistic number for comparison of races. Now, Beyer figures are perhaps the most known, and most used in the U.S. – but from your comments to our recent post concerning the Marquee Race Method, I can surmise that many of you use BRIS ratings. As a personal choice, I have used TrackMaster pp’s and their adjusted speed rating for many years. Their proprietary speed figure is more in line with the European numbers, and I prefer them.

The method we gave out calls for the use of Beyer figures – and for some European runners, their comparison to Racing Post figures which are also given in the DRF past performance data.

The Breeders Cup races, as well as other marquee type races (especially on the turf) require using other ratings – in particular Racing Post, and TimeForm.

Below is a chart that I hope will help you. It certainly should help if you want to do your own research and recap races using the equivalent, adjusted number from a different service in order to analyze the variance in results.

The original chart and explanation of same appears on http://www.chef-de-race.com   There is further explanation linked to there that you might also find of value.

 

Comparative numerical values for:

Performance Figures (PF)
Beyer Speed Figures (BSF)
Timeform  Ratings (TR)
Racing Post Ratings (RPR)
BRIS Ratings (BRIS)
Equibase Speed  Figures (EB)

“These ratings numbers apply to races for older males in open company. The correlation coefficients which measure the closeness of the fit between PFs and the other figures are displayed as well.   The nearer a correlation coefficient is to 1.00, the better the fit between the  two sets of figures.”

 

CLASS PF BSF TR RPR BRIS EB
50 60 79 77 80 75
$2.5K 40 64 81 80 81 78
30 68 84 83 83 80
20 71 87 86 85 83
10 75 90 89 87 86
$10K 0 79 92 93 89 89
-10 83 95 96 91 92
-20 87 99 99 93 95
NY NW1 -30 91 102 103 95 98
NY NW2 -40 95 105 107 97 101
NY NW3 -50 99 109 111 99 105
-60 103 113 115 101 108
-70 107 116 119 103 112
G3 -72 108 117 120 104 113
G2 -78 110 119 123 105 115
-80 111 120 123 106 116
G1 -84 112 122 125 107 117
-90 115 124 128 108 120
-100 119 129 133 110 124
-110 122 133 137 113 128
-120 126 138 142 115 132
-130    130    143    148    118    137
CORR. COEFF. = 0.91 0.75 0.78 0.84

 

*NOTE   The Beyer/Racing Post chart I gave in the Marquee Race Method is slightly different and takes into account races for other than only older males.

Best of fortune to you all.                     – Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

10 comments

  1. Robert Vitale

    HI Gary,
    I stumbled upon an old atticle that mentioned a free method you gave out called the Marquee Race Method if its all possiable can you send me it bia email.Thanks for your time.

  2. guy tedesco

    hi gary
    guy tedesco here. if you still are offering your marquee method i would be interested.

  3. Bob Kriebel

    Hi, Gary,

    My bad…very bad. Please substitute the word “speed” for the word “dosage”. I did, in fact, read the post, but I must have “zoned out” for a minute. Maybe I picked up and smoked some bad stuff from the little village you wrote about in “The Greatest Racing Day…”. 🙂

    As for the rebate comment, I just went back and reread the post and you’re exact words are: “This isn’t for everyone. If you are a $10 bettor who plays every other weekend, then ‘good on ya mate’ – but this isn’t really for you.” If I misinterpreted that wording, please elaborate a bit. You do talk about “commitment” in the post, which is certainly understandable…but, what level of “commitment” are we talking about? I don’t have the resources to put out $100 on a race, but, is there a place for tiny players like me in the rebate program? I may be very interested, but I can’t push as much money through the windows as many players can.

    Bob

    • Bob –

      Okay, but again nowhere did I say anything about $100 wagers being a requirement. When I mention “Commitment” I am Talking about consistency of play. Rebates are nearly meaningless to a player who rarely wagers and then only in smaller increments – they just don’t amount to enough to have much meaning in the overall bottom line of that player.

      That said – all (but check the state restrictions) are welcome. The other points I will discuss with you in a private email. – Gary

  4. Bob Kriebel

    Hi, Gary,

    I never put much stock in dosage indices for a few reasons:

    1 – As you so well point out, there are so many of them. I suppose you could simply choose one and obtain acceptable results as long as you stick to that one index.

    2 – Systems associated with the dosage indices seemed (to me) to be a bit more subtle/complicated than I want my horse racing game to be.

    3 – Different indices, undoubtedly, perform better than others under different conditions (i.e., for different types of races)

    You have had posts about needing to realize what you want your racing game to me for you…even going so far as to “handicapping yourself. As you know, I’m just a weekender. Maybe I’m misinterpreting, but it seems to me that adding the dosage factor is just an overcomplication.

    I’ve dreamed of making a living from the horses, but, the more I see what is required, the less likely I am to realize that dream. For instance, you recently mentioned an elite group you’re soliciting for high-rebate wagering and cited $100 per race as a rough level of participation. We $10 bettors “need not apply”. Understood…and best of fortune to you, too.

    Bob

    P.S. I’m not sure if this was the post you wanted comments on to receive the No Cost method. If it is, please send. I’m always happy to see the things you offer. If it is not, please direct me to the proper place. Thanks.

    • Bob – I’m not sure where you are getting your information? A. Nowhere in the post on SPEED ratings have I mentioned Dosage – at all?! Either you did not read the post, or you are confusing it with some other blog. B. Nowhere in the offer for the rebate program did I state anything about a $100 minimum wager to apply – in fact I stated that there were no minimum criteria except that a player be serious about their committment.

      We go back a ways, Bob – not sure about your “We $10 bettors “need not apply”. Understood…and best of fortune to you, too.” ?! You must be in a rare bad mood ? or ?
      – Gary

  5. glenn davis

    The only use I’ve ever found for the Beyer Figs was to determine when a First Time Starter was a better bet than any of the horses with racing experience. All ratings except for the Form have elements of subjectivity to them that I can live without.

    • Glenn – If you are averse to the results/uncertainty of subjectivity, you are perhaps in a heck of a pickle! The Heisenberg Principle states that – the mere act of observing ANY phenomenon – any physical event – will in fact change the results of that event! I think that all things we perceive are completely suffused with our own subjective point of view, and nothing in the physical universe could possibly be apart from that basic truth. – Gary

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