The Class-Drop Factor

Posted by ginag2 on Jul 24, 2012 in Blog | 7 comments

Sometimes we tend to overlook the obvious.

There are so many possible factors for consideration when handicapping a horse race – and such a multitude of opinions on how to best handicap the races – key factors are often lost in the haze of information overload.

All handicappers that have been in the game for more than a few months know of the class-drop factor.  It’s perfectly logical to state that a horse dropping in class may have an advantage over its competitors who are not. Like the advantage a ‘big league’ baseball team would have over a double-A league team. Easy to grasp the concept, but so obvious that it is often overlooked, or under-valued in relation to other more ‘esoteric’ factors to be considered in a race.

The game revolves around money – in every regard. Connections suddenly willing to acknowledge their horse is worth less money than it was last time it raced are giving a signal that, in general, says one of two things;

– “We’re now seriously after the purse winnings in today’s race,” or

– “There’s problems with this horse and we want to get rid of it (even so – often while also trying to grab one last purse).

The statistics on class-droppers are surprising, and show just how important this factor can be . . .