The Class-Drop Factor
Sometimes we tend to overlook the obvious.
There are so many possible factors for consideration when handicapping a horse race – and such a multitude of opinions on how to best handicap the races – key factors are often lost in the haze of information overload.
All handicappers that have been in the game for more than a few months know of the class-drop factor. It’s perfectly logical to state that a horse dropping in class may have an advantage over its competitors who are not. Like the advantage a ‘big league’ baseball team would have over a double-A league team. Easy to grasp the concept, but so obvious that it is often overlooked, or under-valued in relation to other more ‘esoteric’ factors to be considered in a race.
The game revolves around money – in every regard. Connections suddenly willing to acknowledge their horse is worth less money than it was last time it raced are giving a signal that, in general, says one of two things;
– “We’re now seriously after the purse winnings in today’s race,” or
– “There’s problems with this horse and we want to get rid of it (even so – often while also trying to grab one last purse).
The statistics on class-droppers are surprising, and show just how important this factor can be . . .
Below are races from this past Sunday, July 22. Only claiming, optional claiming, and maiden claining races considered – with the stipulation that maiden claiming races with more than 1 first-time-starter, or 1 first time starter with final odds or morning line odds of 4-1 or lower – will be passed. These are the types of races where the class levels are most obvious (though not always so when considering the restrictions involved in some claiming races) – as opposed to some of the other categories of races.
Track | race | level today | level of winner in previous race | pays to win | |
Dmr | 1 | MCL 20 | MCL 30 | $3.80 | |
4 | CL 40 | CL 62.5 | $16.80 | ||
5 | CL 40 | CL 50 | $5.20 | ||
7 | OC 40 | Grade 2 | $9.60 | ||
Ap | 1 | lost | lost | lost | |
2 | CL 18 | CL 25 | $9.00 | ||
3 | (same) | (same) | $7.80 | ||
6 | lost | lost | lost | ||
7 | OC 80 | Grade 1 | $3.80 | ||
8 | CL 5 (11.5K purse) | CL 5 (14K purse) | $10.20 | ||
9 | lost | lost | lost | ||
Sar | 3 | lost | lost | lost | |
4 | CL 20 (20K purse) | SH (purse 64K) | $9.40 | ||
5 | (same) | (same) | $15.20 | ||
10 | CL 20 | CL 25 | $8.20 | ||
Wo | 3 | CL 20 | CL 40 | $13.80 | |
7 | MCL 12.5 | MCL 25 | $21.20 | ||
9 | (same) | (same) | $4.30 |
That was 18 races at 4 tracks.
Class droppers won 11 of those, or 61% of them. Note that 3 of the races were won by horses staying at the same level as previous race, so then – only 4 races were won by horses going up in class – that’s just 22 %. Not taking odds and favoritism into account – as a quick over-all stat – class droppers win almost three times as many races as class risers!
Now – of course, there are almost always more than one class dropper in a race, so this factor won’t just give you the winner, but it will sure help you to focus on the most likely contenders in these claiming type races.
Food for serious thought.
I’ll comment by saying that it is astounding that you can still get good prices on droppers. Many angles (I.e.) Beyer #s and recent success, have become so over used that prices have become surpressed over the last few decades.
Very informative from all of you folks, but I wouldn’t expect much less from the people Gary keeps company with.
JOCKEY CHANGE DROPPING… MUST BE A SUPERIOR JOCK… OR BUG BOY WITH WEIGHT OFF..
LITTLE REGARDED IS WHEN BARN/JOCK MAKE CHOICE OF THIS HORSE… I. E. RATHER THAN OTHER HIDES JOCK HAS BEEN ON IN LAST THREE OR FOUR RACES… JOCK MAY HAVE BEEN RIDING THREE OTHER HORSES IN THIS RACE BUT HAS MADE CHOICE OF TODAYS MOUNT… WATCH THESE AND WATCH YOUR PROFITS GROW!!!! YOU MAY EVEN SEE A HORSE THAT WON ITS LAST AND RIDER IS NOT ON TODAY… WHEN RIDER HAS BEEN OFF OF TWO OR THREE OTHER HORSES… LIMIT JOCK ON HORSES OF LAST THREE OR FOUR RACES ONLY…
Nice article. Those stats are eye-popping. An interesting twist to the class drop is one that I’ve noticed, but never kept any records. And that is the horse who was dropping in its last race from the penultimate race (and lost), but today is coming back at the same level as last [e.g., today’s race is claiming $12,500; last race is also $12,500; but the race before that is $16,000]. I used to call it the second drop. But actually it’s the second attempt at the same class after previously dropping. Seems like I see winning efforts off that 2nd attempt all the time. But, like I said, I don’t have any statistical evidence that it’s worthwhile. Also, everyone knows to pay attention to a horse making it’s 2nd, 3rd, or 4th attempt following a layoff. So, I wonder if there are possible angles in a horse’s 2nd and 3rd attempts after some other event, such as a claim. Maybe someone has already done some work in that area.
TO DAVE HENRY…AND ALL
I’d like to comment on the person with the insight on the 2cd drop down ANGLE. DAVE HENRY
I GOT A SYSTEM LONG AGO THAT WAS CALLED THE “” DROP DOWN COVER UP”””SYSTEM. ITS BEEN AROUND A LONG TIME.
HERES HOW IT GOES ;;
1] FIND ALL HORSES WHOSE DROPPING IN CLASS [2CD] RACE BACK TO THE LAST RACE [[AND]] TODAYS CLASS IS LOWER OR EQUAL TO THE CLASS OF THE LAST RACE.
2] IF THE LENGTHS AT THE FINISH!!![[DOESN’T SAY WHAT TO DO ON DISTANCE SWITCHES IN THOSE RACES?]]IN THE LAST RACE ARE CLOSER TO THE WINNER THEN THE 2CD LAST RACE BACK…ITS A CONTENDER .
3]IF MORE THAN ONE PLAY IN A RACE.. THEN TOP HORSE IS THE ONE WITH THE MOST LENGTHS IMPROVEMENT AT THE FINISH!!
EXAMPLE: 16 L BACK IN 2CD LAST RACE AND 4 LENGTHS BACK IN LAST RACE == 12 L. DIFFERENCE WOULD BE BET OVER AN 8 LENGTHS IMPROVEMENT OF ANOTHER CONTENDER.
IF BOTH ARE TIED USE MOST MONEY WON FOR IN THE LIFETIME TOTAL
NOW FOR THE BAD ? NEWS…………..
I’VE STUDIED OVER >>500 OF THESE TYPES RACES,,,,,,
I USE THE MOST MONEY WON [LIFETIME] AS MY BET ON TOP IF MORE THAN ONE CONTENDER OF THIS TYPE. NOT LENGTHS UNLESS NEAR 6 1/4L
ALSO THE RATE OF WINS IS ONLY 16%
BUT THE AVERAGE PRICE PAYOFF IS ABOUT $11.60 AND AVERAGE LENGTHS IMPROVEMNET WAS 6 1/4 .
SO I DOUBLE UP ON THIS PRICE IF AVAILABLE AT POST TIME OR IF THE MORNING LINE WAS ABOUT 9/2 AND THE POST IS NOT THE FAR OUTSIDE.
ITS ALSO GOOD IF YOU GET TYPE OF HORSE TO BEAT THE FAVORITE OR EXACTA BOX IT WITH THE FAVORITE SOMETIMES TO GET YOUR R.O.I UP.
BIGGEST PAYOFFS I CAN REMEMBER OFFHAND WAS “TOP PICK?” NO 7 @TAMPA BAY DOWNS IN THE LAST RACE IN FEB.2011 OR 2010. IT PAID $96.00 AND ANOTHER I REMEMBER FOR $76.00 BUT THE AVERAGE IS
4-1 TO 5-1
ALSO THERE WAS NO DATE RULE TO THIS SYSTEM SO YOU CAN MAYBE FACTOR THAN IN OR NOT. I USE THE 30 DAY RULE OR IGNORE THIS IF PAYOFFS ARE HIGH. ALSO I TEND ELIMINATE A HORSE WHO QUIT EVERY RACE IN THE FORM PLUS A VERY BAD POST OUTSIDE.
GOOD LUCK !
GLENNSKI
class drop is important lets not forget the age of the horse also i feel classdrop in horse 5yrs and under in males and gelding come pair to females is important just notice it males in c/d seem to put there heart into it notice 5yr old gelding nest time but as we all know what looks solid couse of action today dies tomorrow also time off between c/d is important to me unless horse is w.o. someplace i long for a 6 or 8 for w.o. time or speed doesn.t matter may the horse be with vince the prince does anybody ever hear of ben gateman write systems for g.e. not has good and never will be compared to you guys
I often have found class drop winners from trainers on the NYRA circuit moving into MCl or Never this Low for the first time.