Breeders Cup 2015!
Alright – it’s that time of the year again – one week from today!
I love Breeders Cup days – how about you? Not only do we get top-quality racing, and superb horseflesh on display – but also it’s just so much easier to make juicy profits on theses days.
Day-to-day horse betting can get to be a grind. At times, races sort of become indistinguishable from one another; small fields, uninspiring runners, low odds favorites parading in like clockwork (but not often enough to make any money betting them long-term), hours of pre-race work only to end up with a paltry profit on the day (often even when the handicapping was right on!) . . .
Then comes the two Breeders Cup days of racing, and the whole stale process takes on a fresh potential. High paying winners are in the cards – even monster winners – and they will be ‘gettable’ employing the same handicapping factors (if you are a natural contrarian) used in the daily grind. As example, below is a quick review of the results of the recent years of the Horse Racing Gold Breeders Cup Special Report . . .
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Bet Management
In handicapping – as in life – not everything we think is true (factual) is actually true, nor does it merit our consideration as such. Anything that can be considered out there is so much more intricate than is possible for us to fathom . . . and what’s really true is always more (or different) than what appears to be true.
Now – after that $65 intro – let’s bring it back down to what really concerns us all: How to make more profits from a series of wagers.
Part of the figuring out what’s “actually true” might be to get a better handle on what constitutes a “series” of wagers. Most players look at races by-the-race. That is – they tally their bets by how much was bet, and how much was made or lost in an individual race.
What if you completely changed that kind of thinking?
Read MoreRisk vs. Reward
For most players, sooner or later a “happy medium” in their wagering activities is found. They establish for themselves and settle into a comfort zone where they feel alright with the level of risk versus potential for profit.
– A couple of posts back, we discussed a money management approach – progression betting – which is a higher risk, potentially higher reward way to approach the game.
Progression betting may be of interest to some few players with a tolerance for higher risk (and the bankroll to match), but I think it likely that the far larger proportion of race bettors are conservative in their nature and do not well tolerate (nor can afford) large losses.
– Then in the last post, we brought up the value of studying what the “old time” handicapping gurus had to show us and then applying it to modern racing.
This post will do both . . .
Read MoreBlue Moon Longshots
It sure is nice to hit a very high paying horse isn’t it?! Nothing quite like it and, of course, that keeps players searching for more – hoping for more – sometimes even praying for more!
But how often do those boxcar win payoffs actually come in? Not very often – everyone knows that. A player can go broke very quickly if playing nothing but longshots.
Naturally – lady luck can be a factor. A player could hit something very good once or twice early in the life of his bankroll – and fund his ‘chasing’ wagers for several weeks and months before the odds probabilities catch back up to him.
Then there is the factor of handicapping for longshots. They happen – yes – but there are usually several long odds horses in every race. How in the world does a player deduce a set of viable variables that will point out the one high odds horse among several that might have a slight possibility of winning the race?
It’s a tough nut to crack. To find out how tough, and to learn a super simple step that will point out the winner of a race 87.5 percent of the time . . .
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