Pointers Along The Way
Which way to go?
In this game, it seems there are a never-ending number of ‘paths’ a player could go down. Systems, methods and approaches of every shape, size and color. Which do you choose?
I’ll just list some of the main sectors and factors of handicapping the races . . .
Types; Maiden, Maiden Claiming, Claiming, Optional Claiming, Allowance, Stakes, Graded Stakes / Restricted or open / For; 2 yr. olds, 3 yr. olds, 3 yr. old and older / On; dirt, poly, turf.
Factors; Distance, Speed (early and total) / Pace /Class / Form Cycle / Trainer / Jockey
Now – there are many other factors that could be considered separately, or as a sub-group in one of the above – like; individual track, interior fractions, pars, track variants, track condition (fast, sloppy, muddy, good, firm, yielding etc.), pedigree, workouts, trips and trouble, and on and on.
Okay – then when forming a handicapping approach – what are your possible choices . . . i.e. how many combination of factors exist from which you can choose? Let’s say you decided to choose just 5 from those listed above, and you wanted to ‘weight’ them by importance to your method – how many combinations/permutations of your potential method would there be?
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Risk vs. Reward
For most players, sooner or later a “happy medium” in their wagering activities is found. They establish for themselves and settle into a comfort zone where they feel alright with the level of risk versus potential for profit.
– A couple of posts back, we discussed a money management approach – progression betting – which is a higher risk, potentially higher reward way to approach the game.
Progression betting may be of interest to some few players with a tolerance for higher risk (and the bankroll to match), but I think it likely that the far larger proportion of race bettors are conservative in their nature and do not well tolerate (nor can afford) large losses.
– Then in the last post, we brought up the value of studying what the “old time” handicapping gurus had to show us and then applying it to modern racing.
This post will do both . . .
Read MoreBreeders Cup 2014
Alright – Breeders Cup again!
Past Breeders Cups have invariably been the most interesting, challenging, and potentially lucrative race cards of the year – and this has been true each and every year since its inception in 1984. It’s a ‘lock’ that they’ll again live up to that billing this year.
Horse Racing Gold will be issuing our annual Breeders Cup Report as usual this year – and also as usual – we expect to again do very well.
The HRG BC Report will smoke out some very good wagers for you – for win, exacta, and trifecta (and whichever of the other exotics you care to participate in) – it always does.
What can you expect?
As an example – following is a complete race-by-race recap of the bottom line results from last year . . .
Read MoreFoward To The Past
There are always sharp handicappers out there from whom we can learn and make our own game better.
Many of those sharpies are ‘figures out of the past’ – players who have had their day in the sun and are now either deceased, or whose writings have generally been relegated to the dusty shelves of old handicapper’s (like me) libraries.
But I have always been one to go back and study those guys – attempting to glean some golden nuggets that will apply to the game as we currently play it. Though racing is continually evolving, the value of what these giant figures of the game’s past have to offer shouldn’t be overlooked.
Recently I was reminded of the great statistics compilation done by Fred Davis in the early seventies . . .
Progression Betting
Want to have a way to recover losses after a losing streak that will work 99 times out of 100? (We’ve got a gratis spreadsheet for you – how to get it further down in the post)
One of the comments to the L&B blog post recently – got me to thinking about writing a short post on progressions – again. Several years back I wrote an article on progression betting that is still available over on the Horse Racing Gold main site.
Generally, I avoid such articles because there are problem gamblers out there, and I just don’t want to encourage that type. But – here goes anyway – with this warning: If you sense any of that in you – that desire to lose control and to risk more than you have to lose, or more than you have set aside for risk ventures . . . then it would be best if you just don’t read this post. I’m very serious here.
Progressions are riskier than flat betting – period.
But then – we have chosen a game of risk have we not? So the thought occurs – why not set up a progression that courts losing streaks, and will – when they occur – actually gain more profits than if they hadn’t happened.
What?!
Read MoreThe L&B Method
The new L&B Method:
What we’ve got: A new method that will be profitable for you – no matter who you are.
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What you’ll get: A method that is simplicity itself – but whose foundation is as solid as it gets. The factors used are the most crucial to the outcome of a race, and we have tweaked them to a fine degree of dependability, yet it will take you only 3 minutes to handicap the average race.
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What you need to do: Order – go over the material – do a few practice races, then – start cashing tickets (more than half your win bets, and with an ROI that will astound!)
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AND – We are offering a guarantee that has never before been offered in the history of racing, and that statement itself is guaranteed (and will explain the lobster graphic!), Read on . . .
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Potential To Win
By looking at what a horse has done in recent races, and using that as a major factor in our betting decisions – we set ourselves up to make one of the most serious, yet most common mistakes we can possibly make as race players.
The discussion in the last post touched on this – the concept that most handicappers latch onto the most obvious and most recent data to ‘anchor’ their handicapping and decision-making. But unfortunately for our long-term bottom-line, the obvious is, well . . . obvious!
Which means it’s obvious to all the other handicappers and bettors out there – which means that information will be over-used and therefore over-bet – which then assures us of a steady stream of underlays if we are also making that info a major factor in our handicapping.
Certainly we are not oracles, and we don’t have crystal balls, and therefore must use what we do have; the published past performance data, our own collected data (the handicapping of our personal results), the visual appearance of the horse, and the money flow on the toteboard – as input factors for our handicapping and betting decisions.
But the main point here is that the astute handicapper needs to look for POTENTIAL.
How do we go about this – looking for potential?
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Short Term – Long Term
Memory: Does the way our brains function serve to sabotage our efforts at handicapping and betting the races?
Since not many play this game at a consistently profitable level, what could be a reason for that? We all have almost identical brains, and after everything is said and done , and all the variations accounted for – we all have more or less the same potentials and capabilities.
It seems that the reason most fail to succeed to their hoped for levels of profit in this game – is a natural function of the brain itself. The way most of us actually think and remember is throwing a monster monkey wrench into the mix.
It’s a hurdle that can be overcome, but your betting success depends on identifying it, and making a concentrated effort to modify this natural tendency.
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A Ramble
This post will be about – like the old Seinfeld series – nothing in particular . . . a ramble that may turn into a bit of a rant in parts – I’m not sure yet.
To start, Horse Racing Gold gets (along with the comments posted to the blog) a lot of write-in comments that never get posted – comments like (paraphrased);
– If I bet exactly as you say – will I get the same results, or is there subjectivity involved?
– If I use this method, can I make a good/decent income betting?
– I was doing so well at (name the track/s), but now at (name another track/s) I’m not doing very well with the same method
– But – I thought you said . . .
– I really need to make some money – which method should I use?
For our take on these – and more . . .
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Pulling the Trigger
Betting decisions . . . when to – when not to.
How you decide whether or not to “pull the trigger” in any particular race may be the most important element in the entire process.
From the time you begin considering a race for betting (whether it be looking at the past performance data, or the tote board) to the time you cash, or tear up the ticket – the moment of decision making – the final commitment to risk – is the most critical.
Though this is the most important moment, it cannot be divorced from the process itself – i.e. everything leading up to, and following that moment.
Many players might assume that the handicapping is the crucial part of the process. But handicapping per se – identifying the most likely horse to win the race – can be a kind of trap.
There is an inherent difficulty in making long-term profits when your main factor for ultimately making a betting decision is based on how good the horse looks in the past performances. The pari-mutuel system itself makes sure of this. Others will see the same positive factors, also make their decisions based on those . . . and the odds go down to levels that are not returning a “fair” amount.
What then would be the ‘thing worth knowing’ that could set your decision making apart – that could make it “spot on?”
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